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If you have a lathe now, how long will it take for that lathe to disintegrate into complete irreparable unusability? With a fertility rate of 1.3 among the int

If you have a lathe now, how long will it take for that lathe to disintegrate into complete irreparable unusability? With a fertility rate of 1.3 among the intelligent (read: technologically capable) peoples of the world, we are far more likely to run out of people to maintain the technology than we are to run out of the energy to power it. Indeed, if you walk into any utility company or similar, who do you see doing all the work? Middle-aged-to-old working-class white men. What happens when those men retire? Who is going to hold the infrastructure together? Unlike a civilization-wide energy crash, this is not merely a rhetorical question.

robbiep 10y ago
That assumes that technologically capable people must be the progeny of technically/technologically capable people, which I put to you is not in any way, shape or form true. Are you using the number of 1.3 from people with university education in the rich world? It seems a very narrow window through which to view humanity'a 'capable' people, who exist in all shapes and forms, all colours, on all continents, and often arise from deep poverty without any formal education, my grandfather for instance
- mitochondrion 10y ago
  Technological capability is more or less intellectual ability. IQ is substantially heritable. A child's IQ is (more or less) the average of his four grandparents. The IQ of his four grandparents is largely the result of cognitive assortment within a breeding population with a certain mean IQ. If a population's mean IQ is 70, the percentage of people with an IQ above 130 is 0 (out to four decimal places). If 85, 0.1%. If 100, 2.2%. If 115, 15.9%. The mean IQ of the white race is about 100. The mean IQ of SS Africans is about 70. The mean IQ of Arabs is about 85. The mean IQ of Chinese is 105 or so. The mean IQ of Ashkenazi Jews is 110-115, depending on how you measure it (they are a special case). There are probably more people possessing IQs of 130 or above in Israel than in all of Africa. The number 1.3 comes from a rough average of the fertility of the white nations and of the high-end Asian countries, namely Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and to a somewhat lesser extent mainland China.
- mitochondrion 10y ago
  Technological capability is more or less intellectual ability. IQ is substantially heritable. A child's IQ is (more or less) the average of his four grandparents. The IQ of his four grandparents is largely the result of cognitive assortment within a breeding population with a certain mean IQ. If a population's mean IQ is 70, the percentage of people with an IQ above 130 is 0 (out to four decimal places). If 85, 0.1%. If 100, 2.2%. If 115, 15.9%. The mean IQ of the white race is about 100. The mean IQ of SS Africans is about 70. The mean IQ of Arabs is about 85. The mean IQ of Chinese is 105 or so. The mean IQ of Ashkenazi Jews is 110-115, depending on how you measure it (they are a special case). There are probably more people possessing IQs of 130 or above in Israel than in all of Africa. The number 1.3 comes from a rough average of the fertility of the white nations and of the high-end Asian countries, namely Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and to a somewhat lesser extent mainland China.

robbiep 10y ago

That assumes that technologically capable people must be the progeny of technically/technologically capable people, which I put to you is not in any way, shape or form true. Are you using the number of 1.3 from people with university education in the rich world? It seems a very narrow window through which to view humanity'a 'capable' people, who exist in all shapes and forms, all colours, on all continents, and often arise from deep poverty without any formal education, my grandfather for instance

mitochondrion 10y ago
Technological capability is more or less intellectual ability. IQ is substantially heritable. A child's IQ is (more or less) the average of his four grandparents. The IQ of his four grandparents is largely the result of cognitive assortment within a breeding population with a certain mean IQ. If a population's mean IQ is 70, the percentage of people with an IQ above 130 is 0 (out to four decimal places). If 85, 0.1%. If 100, 2.2%. If 115, 15.9%. The mean IQ of the white race is about 100. The mean IQ of SS Africans is about 70. The mean IQ of Arabs is about 85. The mean IQ of Chinese is 105 or so. The mean IQ of Ashkenazi Jews is 110-115, depending on how you measure it (they are a special case). There are probably more people possessing IQs of 130 or above in Israel than in all of Africa. The number 1.3 comes from a rough average of the fertility of the white nations and of the high-end Asian countries, namely Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and to a somewhat lesser extent mainland China.
mitochondrion 10y ago
Technological capability is more or less intellectual ability. IQ is substantially heritable. A child's IQ is (more or less) the average of his four grandparents. The IQ of his four grandparents is largely the result of cognitive assortment within a breeding population with a certain mean IQ. If a population's mean IQ is 70, the percentage of people with an IQ above 130 is 0 (out to four decimal places). If 85, 0.1%. If 100, 2.2%. If 115, 15.9%. The mean IQ of the white race is about 100. The mean IQ of SS Africans is about 70. The mean IQ of Arabs is about 85. The mean IQ of Chinese is 105 or so. The mean IQ of Ashkenazi Jews is 110-115, depending on how you measure it (they are a special case). There are probably more people possessing IQs of 130 or above in Israel than in all of Africa. The number 1.3 comes from a rough average of the fertility of the white nations and of the high-end Asian countries, namely Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and to a somewhat lesser extent mainland China.