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So I used the calculator on Tesla's web site, in my case, I'd want 3 powerwalls and I'd want a solar installation to complement it: $18,000 USD. That's still w

by Annatar 10y ago

So I used the calculator on Tesla's web site, in my case, I'd want 3 powerwalls and I'd want a solar installation to complement it: $18,000 USD. That's still way too high: $1,800 - $2,500 would have been acceptable. That is how much I'm willing to pay for some solar panels, three batteries, and a little bit of electronics (processed sand) to control the lot. As far as I'm concerned, this is all still hype. Prices need to go down, waaayyy down, and the profit margin and the engineering needs to be recuperated through volume. The days of fat profit margins and the early adopters amortizing the research and development have come and gone. The computer industry learned that lesson the hard way; it would be a shame if Mr. Musk repeated the same mistake, instead of learning from history.

maxerickson 10y ago
A more interesting metric might be months of pay back time. $1,800-$2,500 seems like an arbitrary number you made up. Like if your power bill averages $150 (I realize it probably doesn't) and you plan to stay in place for a few years, then something like 50*$150=$7500 is easy to consider and is much higher than the numbers you tossed out (that's just over 4 years to pay you back). I mean, I agree with the point you are implying, that people won't be overwhelmingly excited with solar until the payback goes below 2 or 3 years, but I think it also makes sense for longer payback times.
- Annatar 10y ago
  A more interesting metric might be months of pay back time. $1,800-$2,500 seems like an arbitrary number you made up. It is an arbitrary number I made up! Which part of that is how much I am willing to pay requires additional clarification? I mean, I agree with the point you are implying, that people won't be overwhelmingly excited with solar until the payback goes below 2 or 3 years, That's exactly right, and more: I am not willing to amortize their research and development costs outright. That's something Tesla (or any other company, for that matter) will have to do over years, at least as far as my wallet is concerned. Amortizing research & development costs outright is just pure greed; I won't support it.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    It is an arbitrary number I made up! My point is that this is not really a good way to make financial decisions. If you've bought a house and plan to stay, spending up front to save over a decade is something to work at. Consider the rule of 72. Something that pays back in 10 years is yielding a roughly 7% return. That's a great return. As I said, I'm right there with ya on waiting until it makes good financial sense to make such purchases, I just think it is also a good idea to do some analysis to figure out what that means (and if the purchase makes sense, who cares what it means to the company selling).

by Annatar 10y ago

maxerickson 10y ago

A more interesting metric might be months of pay back time. $1,800-$2,500 seems like an arbitrary number you made up. Like if your power bill averages $150 (I realize it probably doesn't) and you plan to stay in place for a few years, then something like 50*$150=$7500 is easy to consider and is much higher than the numbers you tossed out (that's just over 4 years to pay you back). I mean, I agree with the point you are implying, that people won't be overwhelmingly excited with solar until the payback goes below 2 or 3 years, but I think it also makes sense for longer payback times.

Annatar 10y ago
A more interesting metric might be months of pay back time. $1,800-$2,500 seems like an arbitrary number you made up. It is an arbitrary number I made up! Which part of that is how much I am willing to pay requires additional clarification? I mean, I agree with the point you are implying, that people won't be overwhelmingly excited with solar until the payback goes below 2 or 3 years, That's exactly right, and more: I am not willing to amortize their research and development costs outright. That's something Tesla (or any other company, for that matter) will have to do over years, at least as far as my wallet is concerned. Amortizing research & development costs outright is just pure greed; I won't support it.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  It is an arbitrary number I made up! My point is that this is not really a good way to make financial decisions. If you've bought a house and plan to stay, spending up front to save over a decade is something to work at. Consider the rule of 72. Something that pays back in 10 years is yielding a roughly 7% return. That's a great return. As I said, I'm right there with ya on waiting until it makes good financial sense to make such purchases, I just think it is also a good idea to do some analysis to figure out what that means (and if the purchase makes sense, who cares what it means to the company selling).