5 ms·
A single phone poll of "a random national sample of 874 likely voters" (1 in every 350 thousand) does not a fact make in a nation of 300 million people. Sample
by cmdrfred 10y ago
A single phone poll of "a random national sample of 874 likely voters" (1 in every 350 thousand) does not a fact make in a nation of 300 million people. Sample size is just too small. Such a study would have to be repeated with a larger sample.
- Armisael16 10y ago56% ± 3.3% at 95% confidence isn't good enough for you?
- cmdrfred 10y agoThey are pulling the confidence level out of their asses. The Clinton campaign has been playing with the polling since the start of this campaign. https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 If this is real, it can be duplicated.
- Armisael16 10y ago...that confidence level isn't from the campaign. That's just how confidence is calculated. The z score for 95% confidence is 1.96, so the range is: 1.96sqrt(0.56*(1-0.56)/871) ~ 3.3%
- gragas 10y agoWe aren't talking about the true population though. You can't use z-scores, not that it would make a huge difference. FiveThirtyEight is extremely biased however, and greatly oversamples Democrats.
- michaelmrose 10y agoThey don't actually even do polls they agrigate data from a variety of sources.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- swang 10y agoyou understand what that email was talking about right? oversampling is done to get a better view of specific groups. when put back in comparison to the population as a whole they are readjusted for their extra sampling. those polls were also for internal purposes to the clinton campaign, and not polls that are actually released. so why would there be manipulation in an internal poll that would affect decision making in the clinton camp? there is literally zero going on in that email but trump supporters saw "oversampled" and freaked out because they didn't know what it meant in regards to polling.