4 ms·

It seems few people are actually voting for Clinton, but rather voting against Trump. What is something like this leaves such a bad taste in their mouth that th

It seems few people are actually voting for Clinton, but rather voting against Trump. What is something like this leaves such a bad taste in their mouth that they decide to not vote at all?

ethanbond 10y ago
This is definitely the risk. Especially with so many Dems saying "no one cares." People do care; the way for leftists (like myself) to show that they care is by simply abstaining or going third party which would obviously cripple her.
Armisael16 10y ago
Your gut's wrong on this one: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-just-voting-against-trump/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-jus... Most Clinton voters are voting for her, not against Trump.
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  A single phone poll of "a random national sample of 874 likely voters" (1 in every 350 thousand) does not a fact make in a nation of 300 million people. Sample size is just too small. Such a study would have to be repeated with a larger sample.
  - Armisael16 10y ago
    56% ± 3.3% at 95% confidence isn't good enough for you?
    - cmdrfred 10y ago
      They are pulling the confidence level out of their asses. The Clinton campaign has been playing with the polling since the start of this campaign. https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 If this is real, it can be duplicated.
      - Armisael16 10y ago
        ...that confidence level isn't from the campaign. That's just how confidence is calculated. The z score for 95% confidence is 1.96, so the range is: 1.96sqrt(0.56*(1-0.56)/871) ~ 3.3%
        gragas 10y ago
        We aren't talking about the true population though. You can't use z-scores, not that it would make a huge difference. FiveThirtyEight is extremely biased however, and greatly oversamples Democrats.
        michaelmrose 10y ago
        They don't actually even do polls they agrigate data from a variety of sources.
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - swang 10y ago
        you understand what that email was talking about right? oversampling is done to get a better view of specific groups. when put back in comparison to the population as a whole they are readjusted for their extra sampling. those polls were also for internal purposes to the clinton campaign, and not polls that are actually released. so why would there be manipulation in an internal poll that would affect decision making in the clinton camp? there is literally zero going on in that email but trump supporters saw "oversampled" and freaked out because they didn't know what it meant in regards to polling.
- gragas 10y ago
  FiveThirtyEight is extremely biased.
  - Armisael16 10y ago
    Then it's awfully convenient for me that they didn't perform the survey or do the analysis, then.

It seems few people are actually voting for Clinton, but rather voting against Trump. What is something like this leaves such a bad taste in their mouth that they decide to not vote at all?

ethanbond 10y ago

This is definitely the risk. Especially with so many Dems saying "no one cares." People do care; the way for leftists (like myself) to show that they care is by simply abstaining or going third party which would obviously cripple her.

Armisael16 10y ago

Your gut's wrong on this one: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-just-voting-against-trump/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-jus... Most Clinton voters are voting for her, not against Trump.

cmdrfred 10y ago
A single phone poll of "a random national sample of 874 likely voters" (1 in every 350 thousand) does not a fact make in a nation of 300 million people. Sample size is just too small. Such a study would have to be repeated with a larger sample.
- Armisael16 10y ago
  56% ± 3.3% at 95% confidence isn't good enough for you?
  - cmdrfred 10y ago
    They are pulling the confidence level out of their asses. The Clinton campaign has been playing with the polling since the start of this campaign. https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 If this is real, it can be duplicated.
    - Armisael16 10y ago
      ...that confidence level isn't from the campaign. That's just how confidence is calculated. The z score for 95% confidence is 1.96, so the range is: 1.96sqrt(0.56*(1-0.56)/871) ~ 3.3%
      - gragas 10y ago
        We aren't talking about the true population though. You can't use z-scores, not that it would make a huge difference. FiveThirtyEight is extremely biased however, and greatly oversamples Democrats.
        michaelmrose 10y ago
        They don't actually even do polls they agrigate data from a variety of sources.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - swang 10y ago
      you understand what that email was talking about right? oversampling is done to get a better view of specific groups. when put back in comparison to the population as a whole they are readjusted for their extra sampling. those polls were also for internal purposes to the clinton campaign, and not polls that are actually released. so why would there be manipulation in an internal poll that would affect decision making in the clinton camp? there is literally zero going on in that email but trump supporters saw "oversampled" and freaked out because they didn't know what it meant in regards to polling.
gragas 10y ago
FiveThirtyEight is extremely biased.
- Armisael16 10y ago
  Then it's awfully convenient for me that they didn't perform the survey or do the analysis, then.