3 ms·

I am pretty sure the way it works is that everyone will get the immortality when it is available, but the poor folks get 1,000 years of debt.

kobeya 10y ago
I'd take that deal.
- troygoode 10y ago
  Even if we cure aging the median life expectancy might not surpass 1,000 – that is a long time to not get in a car accident, fall off a cliff, be struck by lightning, etc. But yeah, I'd take it too.
  - JoshTriplett 10y ago
    The estimated statistic I've heard is that if you eliminated all causes of death related to aging and age-related degeneration, the average life expectancy would be right around 1000. Which, more importantly, means 930 or so more years to figure out the next solution after that. See also "longevity escape velocity", for how we can incrementally get to 1000 in the first place.
xkcd-sucks 10y ago
Only if people respect IP law. Normal small-molecule drugs are trivial to reverse-engineer, biologics are trickier but the means of manufacturing them is self-replicating, and Shenzhen is good at reverse-engineering other technologies if we're to believe what we read in the media
- yazaddaruvala 10y ago
  So much this!
- Practicality 10y ago
  I highly doubt the process will be a single drug. I can't imagine any way any compound could remove DNA damage[1] for all cells in your body. Of course, if it did that would be great. Most likely treatment would be some sort of specialized therapy where your DNA is painstakingly copied (with some process that is somehow better than the biological one) and then all the cells in your body are periodically repaired. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_damage_theory_of_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_damage_theory_of_aging
yazaddaruvala 10y ago
In all seriousness, the price for eternal youth will be the cost of production and shipping. If it turns out to be a compound for eternal youth, then it can be reverse engineered by labs in China or India (or anywhere). There is no sufficient patent, IP law, moral high ground about R&D expenses. The world will be supplied at the cost of production and shipping.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  Just like the cost of all medication is just production and shipping?
  - yazaddaruvala 10y ago
    My doctors in the US, were hesitant to give me an MRI for my knee because of costs (~$1000 per MRI). Something about the insurance company needing some prerequisites. Fair enough. My knee really wasn't that bad, and I lived my life. 3 months later I was in India for other reasons. I walked into a clinic, spent $96, two days later I had the results of my MRI. I was handed a CD with the raw image files they collected (MRI specific file format). I had "printouts" of those images. I even had a note in english for a layperson like myself to understand. Later, I took those MRI files to my doctors in the US. They confirmed all the findings, and suggested the same things as the doctors in India and I went along my way. Unprovoked the Ortho looking at my knee and the MRI even exclaimed, "thats the best $100 MRI I've ever seen". In this case, the total costs of production/shipping were higher than they would have been in the US. But that is because I had to ship myself (i.e. ~$2000 round trip). However, I built it into my vacation, so the MRI essentially cost me the ~$100 for "production". I've had single dinners which are more expensive. Taking pictures of your body is relatively innocent. Medication is a little more tricky. You need to be able to trust the source. However, if layperson B can trust the source of the Heroin they consistently buy on Silk Road, I have no doubts that the trust issues for medication will be solved far before we have compound "eternal youth". For what its worth, we just happen to have insurance so we tend to think everyone buys drugs legally like we do. Do some research about what people without options actually do. Did you watch the "Dallas Buyers Club"? Where do you think poor diabetics get Insulin, or Metaformin? Even today, Metaformin being an "anti-aging" drug, is even imported from China and sold without prescription. If you're still not convinced: Think about the risk reward calculation for a second. Importing illegal drugs, risk (aside from eating bad pills): 50 years in prison. Reward: You're now eternally young. Endure a really poor 50 years, then a long long time from now, watch the universe slowly end as you eat at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe, fondly looking back at the last bajillion years.

kobeya 10y ago

I'd take that deal.

troygoode 10y ago
Even if we cure aging the median life expectancy might not surpass 1,000 – that is a long time to not get in a car accident, fall off a cliff, be struck by lightning, etc. But yeah, I'd take it too.
- JoshTriplett 10y ago
  The estimated statistic I've heard is that if you eliminated all causes of death related to aging and age-related degeneration, the average life expectancy would be right around 1000. Which, more importantly, means 930 or so more years to figure out the next solution after that. See also "longevity escape velocity", for how we can incrementally get to 1000 in the first place.

xkcd-sucks 10y ago

Only if people respect IP law. Normal small-molecule drugs are trivial to reverse-engineer, biologics are trickier but the means of manufacturing them is self-replicating, and Shenzhen is good at reverse-engineering other technologies if we're to believe what we read in the media

yazaddaruvala 10y ago
So much this!
Practicality 10y ago
I highly doubt the process will be a single drug. I can't imagine any way any compound could remove DNA damage[1] for all cells in your body. Of course, if it did that would be great. Most likely treatment would be some sort of specialized therapy where your DNA is painstakingly copied (with some process that is somehow better than the biological one) and then all the cells in your body are periodically repaired. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_damage_theory_of_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_damage_theory_of_aging

yazaddaruvala 10y ago

In all seriousness, the price for eternal youth will be the cost of production and shipping. If it turns out to be a compound for eternal youth, then it can be reverse engineered by labs in China or India (or anywhere). There is no sufficient patent, IP law, moral high ground about R&D expenses. The world will be supplied at the cost of production and shipping.

jacquesm 10y ago
Just like the cost of all medication is just production and shipping?
- yazaddaruvala 10y ago
  My doctors in the US, were hesitant to give me an MRI for my knee because of costs (~$1000 per MRI). Something about the insurance company needing some prerequisites. Fair enough. My knee really wasn't that bad, and I lived my life. 3 months later I was in India for other reasons. I walked into a clinic, spent $96, two days later I had the results of my MRI. I was handed a CD with the raw image files they collected (MRI specific file format). I had "printouts" of those images. I even had a note in english for a layperson like myself to understand. Later, I took those MRI files to my doctors in the US. They confirmed all the findings, and suggested the same things as the doctors in India and I went along my way. Unprovoked the Ortho looking at my knee and the MRI even exclaimed, "thats the best $100 MRI I've ever seen". In this case, the total costs of production/shipping were higher than they would have been in the US. But that is because I had to ship myself (i.e. ~$2000 round trip). However, I built it into my vacation, so the MRI essentially cost me the ~$100 for "production". I've had single dinners which are more expensive. Taking pictures of your body is relatively innocent. Medication is a little more tricky. You need to be able to trust the source. However, if layperson B can trust the source of the Heroin they consistently buy on Silk Road, I have no doubts that the trust issues for medication will be solved far before we have compound "eternal youth". For what its worth, we just happen to have insurance so we tend to think everyone buys drugs legally like we do. Do some research about what people without options actually do. Did you watch the "Dallas Buyers Club"? Where do you think poor diabetics get Insulin, or Metaformin? Even today, Metaformin being an "anti-aging" drug, is even imported from China and sold without prescription. If you're still not convinced: Think about the risk reward calculation for a second. Importing illegal drugs, risk (aside from eating bad pills): 50 years in prison. Reward: You're now eternally young. Endure a really poor 50 years, then a long long time from now, watch the universe slowly end as you eat at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe, fondly looking back at the last bajillion years.