Ask HN: How many hits/mb caused a Hug of Death on your Server?

Hi, I'm about to announce a new (niche) product on various sites, including HN, and I want to scale the website accordingly to avoid a Day 1 'hug of death'. The site will probably be a 1 or 2 pager with some basic graphics/screenshot and a 20mb download (.zip file). Can anyone share their recent stats from when they got hugged, or provide some scaling tips? I'm skint, and it's a non-profit product - so a load-balanced quantum-bit powered super-server-farm is a bit out of my reach...