4 ms·

Famous last words. Reminds me of the old adage: "640k of memory is all that anybody with a computer would ever need." I already know a lot of younger folks th

by beambot 10y ago

Famous last words. Reminds me of the old adage: "640k of memory is all that anybody with a computer would ever need." I already know a lot of younger folks that are pumped about the Snapchat glasses... (I'm not saying you're wrong... I just wouldn't make such steadfast predictions about the future either. But then again, I don't understand SnapChat and am not their target audience.)

untog 10y ago
You can trot out that 640k comment to sell any piece of technology, it doesn't make it true. I could have said the same about Google Glass.
- beambot 10y ago
  Indeed you could. And sometimes you'd be right; other times you'd be dead wrong. If you could be right even half the time, you'd be rich as all get out. Which is why I would suggest: Don't make overreaching bold predictions (or become an investor).
  - flukus 10y ago
    I'm right way more than half the time. How do I get rich predicting $newTech will fail?
    - jmickey 10y ago
      Short the stock :)
      - xeromal 10y ago
        Go for it flukus! Easy peasy! If what you say is true, you can probably become a millionaire before the decade is out!
      - mdrzn 10y ago
        and be ready to pay for as long as you're wrong.
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    Being right about half of failures isn't worth anything. You can't short SnapChat Spectacles. You need to be right about half of successes, which is much harder for a raging pessimist like OP.
dir 10y ago
The problem with the Snapchat glasses is their re usability and if it catches on. If your friends aren't using them and you're the only one with a pair you'd be less inclined to wear them. Everyone thought Google Glass was going to be the future but those glasses made you look like a total douche. Hopefully the Spectacles wont be branded as such.
- beambot 10y ago
  I would posit: your perception of "total douche-ness" (your words, not mine) are largely driven by marketing and/or culture. Glass definitely failed in the marketing, branding, and roll-out departments (among others) -- but they're no more or less doofy (to me) than many other perfectly-accepted fashions: baggy pants, beats headphones, crocs, etc.
  - b2600 10y ago
    >(to me) That is a fairly small focus group.
- Canada 10y ago
  Not sure network effects are necessary there. It's fine if one person makes videos with glasses as long as friends enjoy watching them. If the glasses are promoted as something you only wear when you want to record video and that you otherwise put away it might take off. Nobody minds when you pull out a cell phone and record video because it's obvious you're filming. I think it was the omnipresent threat of being secretly recorded that made Glass creepy.
- usrusr 10y ago
  Those glasses are designed to be the party Polaroid of a generation. The person holding the camera gets the attention of everybody keen on presenting themselves, the bet is that putting the camera on your face intensifies this experience. Expect these things to get passed around a bit when in use, so there will quite some local virality within groups. This is good for immediate sales, but long term usage could suffer hard if market saturation coincides with the novelty wearing off. If there is one Polaroid at a given party, it is the center of attention, if there are three of them, they are all just annoying. The me-too buyers well get quite the opposite result compared to the early adopters. If Snapchat sets up the glasses business as an additional revenue stream, it could well become a reasonable but limited success, if they set it up "strategically", maybe even selling at loss, I predict terrible failure.
b2600 10y ago
No, young people will not stand in line to buy or wear those glasses. Snap chat is very popular. However, the current user base will outgrow it and those younger will have something else. Better get that 4B while they can. It doesn't have the roots or staying power of a Facebook or Twitter (I know Twitter isn't making money).
drawnwren 10y ago
I agree with both of you. The glasses are silly, don't seem that technically complex, and I think they are poised to be a huge hit with Snapchat's base audience. Google Glass was a technically well made device that forgot product, I think those stupid glasses hit their product-market fit quite well. The recording indicator and their 'retro' style are both what I consider to be key components in this assessment.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

by beambot 10y ago

untog 10y ago

You can trot out that 640k comment to sell any piece of technology, it doesn't make it true. I could have said the same about Google Glass.

beambot 10y ago
Indeed you could. And sometimes you'd be right; other times you'd be dead wrong. If you could be right even half the time, you'd be rich as all get out. Which is why I would suggest: Don't make overreaching bold predictions (or become an investor).
- flukus 10y ago
  I'm right way more than half the time. How do I get rich predicting $newTech will fail?
  - jmickey 10y ago
    Short the stock :)
    - xeromal 10y ago
      Go for it flukus! Easy peasy! If what you say is true, you can probably become a millionaire before the decade is out!
    - mdrzn 10y ago
      and be ready to pay for as long as you're wrong.
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  Being right about half of failures isn't worth anything. You can't short SnapChat Spectacles. You need to be right about half of successes, which is much harder for a raging pessimist like OP.

dir 10y ago

The problem with the Snapchat glasses is their re usability and if it catches on. If your friends aren't using them and you're the only one with a pair you'd be less inclined to wear them. Everyone thought Google Glass was going to be the future but those glasses made you look like a total douche. Hopefully the Spectacles wont be branded as such.

beambot 10y ago
I would posit: your perception of "total douche-ness" (your words, not mine) are largely driven by marketing and/or culture. Glass definitely failed in the marketing, branding, and roll-out departments (among others) -- but they're no more or less doofy (to me) than many other perfectly-accepted fashions: baggy pants, beats headphones, crocs, etc.
- b2600 10y ago
  >(to me) That is a fairly small focus group.
Canada 10y ago
Not sure network effects are necessary there. It's fine if one person makes videos with glasses as long as friends enjoy watching them. If the glasses are promoted as something you only wear when you want to record video and that you otherwise put away it might take off. Nobody minds when you pull out a cell phone and record video because it's obvious you're filming. I think it was the omnipresent threat of being secretly recorded that made Glass creepy.
usrusr 10y ago
Those glasses are designed to be the party Polaroid of a generation. The person holding the camera gets the attention of everybody keen on presenting themselves, the bet is that putting the camera on your face intensifies this experience. Expect these things to get passed around a bit when in use, so there will quite some local virality within groups. This is good for immediate sales, but long term usage could suffer hard if market saturation coincides with the novelty wearing off. If there is one Polaroid at a given party, it is the center of attention, if there are three of them, they are all just annoying. The me-too buyers well get quite the opposite result compared to the early adopters. If Snapchat sets up the glasses business as an additional revenue stream, it could well become a reasonable but limited success, if they set it up "strategically", maybe even selling at loss, I predict terrible failure.

b2600 10y ago

No, young people will not stand in line to buy or wear those glasses. Snap chat is very popular. However, the current user base will outgrow it and those younger will have something else. Better get that 4B while they can. It doesn't have the roots or staying power of a Facebook or Twitter (I know Twitter isn't making money).

drawnwren 10y ago

I agree with both of you. The glasses are silly, don't seem that technically complex, and I think they are poised to be a huge hit with Snapchat's base audience. Google Glass was a technically well made device that forgot product, I think those stupid glasses hit their product-market fit quite well. The recording indicator and their 'retro' style are both what I consider to be key components in this assessment.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]