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You're trying to convince yourself very hard, as you're all about AR. But nobody will wear those dumb glasses.
by simooooo 10y ago
You're trying to convince yourself very hard, as you're all about AR. But nobody will wear those dumb glasses.
- jdavis703 10y agoAnd nobody would carry Palm Pilot PDAs. Well they didn't wind up carrying them from Palm, but Apple and Samsung sure have something awfully close. Snap may or may not be the AR disruptor, but AR will be the new smartphone. Whoever owns it will be the new Apple.
- 205guy 10y agoBut before Palm Pilots, there was the Newton so loved by techies, just like Glass. So snap may end up the palm pilot or one of the dozen PDA knockoffs that were around (I seem to remember some Microsoft ones too). It seems like concepts float around in several iterations, or as many as it takes, until someone hits the sweet spot. I'm not really knowledgeable about the "wearable" market, but to me it doesn't seem as ubiquitous as the smart phone.
- beambot 10y agoFamous last words. Reminds me of the old adage: "640k of memory is all that anybody with a computer would ever need." I already know a lot of younger folks that are pumped about the Snapchat glasses... (I'm not saying you're wrong... I just wouldn't make such steadfast predictions about the future either. But then again, I don't understand SnapChat and am not their target audience.)
- untog 10y agoYou can trot out that 640k comment to sell any piece of technology, it doesn't make it true. I could have said the same about Google Glass.
- beambot 10y agoIndeed you could. And sometimes you'd be right; other times you'd be dead wrong. If you could be right even half the time, you'd be rich as all get out. Which is why I would suggest: Don't make overreaching bold predictions (or become an investor).
- flukus 10y agoI'm right way more than half the time. How do I get rich predicting $newTech will fail?
- erikpukinskis 10y agoBeing right about half of failures isn't worth anything. You can't short SnapChat Spectacles. You need to be right about half of successes, which is much harder for a raging pessimist like OP.
- dir 10y agoThe problem with the Snapchat glasses is their re usability and if it catches on. If your friends aren't using them and you're the only one with a pair you'd be less inclined to wear them. Everyone thought Google Glass was going to be the future but those glasses made you look like a total douche. Hopefully the Spectacles wont be branded as such.
- beambot 10y agoI would posit: your perception of "total douche-ness" (your words, not mine) are largely driven by marketing and/or culture. Glass definitely failed in the marketing, branding, and roll-out departments (among others) -- but they're no more or less doofy (to me) than many other perfectly-accepted fashions: baggy pants, beats headphones, crocs, etc.
- b2600 10y ago>(to me) That is a fairly small focus group.
- Canada 10y agoNot sure network effects are necessary there. It's fine if one person makes videos with glasses as long as friends enjoy watching them. If the glasses are promoted as something you only wear when you want to record video and that you otherwise put away it might take off. Nobody minds when you pull out a cell phone and record video because it's obvious you're filming. I think it was the omnipresent threat of being secretly recorded that made Glass creepy.
- usrusr 10y agoThose glasses are designed to be the party Polaroid of a generation. The person holding the camera gets the attention of everybody keen on presenting themselves, the bet is that putting the camera on your face intensifies this experience. Expect these things to get passed around a bit when in use, so there will quite some local virality within groups. This is good for immediate sales, but long term usage could suffer hard if market saturation coincides with the novelty wearing off. If there is one Polaroid at a given party, it is the center of attention, if there are three of them, they are all just annoying. The me-too buyers well get quite the opposite result compared to the early adopters. If Snapchat sets up the glasses business as an additional revenue stream, it could well become a reasonable but limited success, if they set it up "strategically", maybe even selling at loss, I predict terrible failure.
- b2600 10y agoNo, young people will not stand in line to buy or wear those glasses. Snap chat is very popular. However, the current user base will outgrow it and those younger will have something else. Better get that 4B while they can. It doesn't have the roots or staying power of a Facebook or Twitter (I know Twitter isn't making money).
- drawnwren 10y agoI agree with both of you. The glasses are silly, don't seem that technically complex, and I think they are poised to be a huge hit with Snapchat's base audience. Google Glass was a technically well made device that forgot product, I think those stupid glasses hit their product-market fit quite well. The recording indicator and their 'retro' style are both what I consider to be key components in this assessment.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- dilap 10y agoLots of people are going to wear those glasses. Is there some site where you can bet small amounts of $ with strangers on the internet? :)
- billskills 10y agoYou mean like a prediction market? Yes, hundreds.
- dilap 10y agoNah, I mean like I want to wager with simooooo. I'm 25% serious.
- toomuchtodo 10y agohttp://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/
- alexc05 10y agoDepending on the strike price, can't you just buy or short a few shares? I mean that's a bet with a payoff & loss.
- elorant 10y agoIf they license the technology to premium brands, say Prada, Calvin Klein etc. everyone will buy them. Especially their target group which is primarily youngsters.
- drusepth 10y agoThose "dumb glasses" are all I hear high school kids talking about when I volunteer. If they hit a cheap enough price point with them, kids are going to wear them everywhere. There'll be plenty of backlash as schools/etc ban them, but they're targeting a market that's already crazy about them.