4 ms·

The Trump landslide is nearly guaranteed. There is far more excitement today for Trump than there was for Reagan back in 1980. The only difference is that the

by stray 10y ago

The Trump landslide is nearly guaranteed. There is far more excitement today for Trump than there was for Reagan back in 1980. The only difference is that the news media were not trying to hide the fact 36 years ago. It may not be obvious to you if you live in one of a few echo chambers like SV, but drive around anywhere else and you'll see very little excitement for the other side. As for the rigging -- believe what you want to believe -- it's going to fail anyway.

AnimalMuppet 10y ago
I'm in Utah. I was at the Republican caucus for my area. The opposition to Trump was extremely high. I don't know where you are and where you get your information, but I'm pretty sure that Trump is not winning in a landslide. I was visiting Scotland just a couple of weeks before the vote to leave the UK. I correctly predicted that "No" would win, though I was off on margin of victory by 6 points. As an outsider, and knowing nothing of the issues, I could see that the "Yes" people were more vocal and the "No" people were more quiet, and therefore that if you got the sense of where the vote was going based on the amount of noise, you were going to over-rate "Yes". I think it's the same thing here. The Trump supporters are vocal. Hillary supporters are more "Meh, at least she's not Trump". Don't mistake the amount of noise for the number of votes.
- stray 10y ago
  I've driven just short of 45,000 miles this year -- over most of the country. And there are easily 30 trump signs for every hillary sign. The hillary "support" is mostly fake. Just like the fake Carter support in '80. You'll see.
  - AnimalMuppet 10y ago
    We'll see, certainly. A question for you: Suppose that Trump loses. Are you going to believe that it had to be rigged? Or are you going to decide that you were wrong in how you read the country? (BTW, for whatever it's worth: Here in Utah, there's plenty of political signs, but very few for either Trump or Hillary. Nobody feels enough in favor of either of them to put up signs. I've seen more signs for Gary Johnson than for anyone.)
    - stray 10y ago
      It has been rigged. That won't change if Trump wins. It will still have been rigged, but the people will have overcome that handicap.
      - AnimalMuppet 10y ago
        Evidence?
        stray 10y ago
        The system is rigged as evidenced by outrageously lopsided support verging on Soviet level propaganda. And at least some electronic voting machines manufacturers have clear conflict of interest because of association with Clinton Foundation. Not to mention the emails (verifiable through DKIM) released by Wikileaks outlining the rigging of the Dem primaries -- as well as Project Veritas videos some of which are corroborated by FEC filings, CNN video, and other mainstream media sources.
        AnimalMuppet 10y ago
        Most of the media is on one side. I accept that statement. (Though I'm not sure that Fox is "fair and balanced", either.) DNC was clearly on Hillary's side, which is not what they're supposed to be doing. I accept that as well. To most people, though, "the election is rigged" means "the votes are not counted honestly". Do you have evidence of that?
        stray 10y ago
        You mean like Chambers County, Texas? They pulled electronic voting machines and switched to paper ballots because the machines were switching the presidential votes from Trump to Clinton for people who had voted all-republican? http://www.12newsnow.com/news/local/programming-issue-briefly-forces-chambers-county-voters-back-to-paper-ballots/341655957 http://www.12newsnow.com/news/local/programming-issue-briefl... http://www.fox26houston.com/news/local-news/213659018-story http://www.fox26houston.com/news/local-news/213659018-story I think machines that change votes to favor Clinton -- and ONLY Clinton -- counts as votes not counted honestly. Would you agree with that?
  - not_kurt_godel 10y ago
    Instead of arguing with you, I would like to make a bet up to $100,000 cash that Hillary will win. Would you be amenable to this? I am 100% serious.
    - stray 10y ago
      I'll bet all of my money against your $100,000 -- if I had $100,000 I'd move to Cambodia.
      - not_kurt_godel 10y ago
        How much do you have?
        stray 10y ago
        Not much. If we're taking risk proportional to what we have in the bank, the amount is immaterial -- an impartial 3rd party can verify that I'm not sandbagging (I do have to reserve rent, electric, internet, and gas bills though). But I could really use the $100,000 -- so how 'bout we set up an escrow to keep each other honest. Trust but verify and all that jazz.
        not_kurt_godel 10y ago
        I wound up investing through https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org . Much easier than betting with a stranger.
        stray 10y ago
        Sucks too, because with my new $100,000 -- I'd have been kicked back on a beach in Cambodia right now. Making Extended Vacation Great Again. At least I got some of your money on PredictIt.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    Carter did not have fake support in 1980. http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/ http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the...

by stray 10y ago

AnimalMuppet 10y ago

I'm in Utah. I was at the Republican caucus for my area. The opposition to Trump was extremely high. I don't know where you are and where you get your information, but I'm pretty sure that Trump is not winning in a landslide. I was visiting Scotland just a couple of weeks before the vote to leave the UK. I correctly predicted that "No" would win, though I was off on margin of victory by 6 points. As an outsider, and knowing nothing of the issues, I could see that the "Yes" people were more vocal and the "No" people were more quiet, and therefore that if you got the sense of where the vote was going based on the amount of noise, you were going to over-rate "Yes". I think it's the same thing here. The Trump supporters are vocal. Hillary supporters are more "Meh, at least she's not Trump". Don't mistake the amount of noise for the number of votes.

stray 10y ago
I've driven just short of 45,000 miles this year -- over most of the country. And there are easily 30 trump signs for every hillary sign. The hillary "support" is mostly fake. Just like the fake Carter support in '80. You'll see.
- AnimalMuppet 10y ago
  We'll see, certainly. A question for you: Suppose that Trump loses. Are you going to believe that it had to be rigged? Or are you going to decide that you were wrong in how you read the country? (BTW, for whatever it's worth: Here in Utah, there's plenty of political signs, but very few for either Trump or Hillary. Nobody feels enough in favor of either of them to put up signs. I've seen more signs for Gary Johnson than for anyone.)
  - stray 10y ago
    It has been rigged. That won't change if Trump wins. It will still have been rigged, but the people will have overcome that handicap.
    - AnimalMuppet 10y ago
      Evidence?
      - stray 10y ago
        The system is rigged as evidenced by outrageously lopsided support verging on Soviet level propaganda. And at least some electronic voting machines manufacturers have clear conflict of interest because of association with Clinton Foundation. Not to mention the emails (verifiable through DKIM) released by Wikileaks outlining the rigging of the Dem primaries -- as well as Project Veritas videos some of which are corroborated by FEC filings, CNN video, and other mainstream media sources.
        AnimalMuppet 10y ago
        Most of the media is on one side. I accept that statement. (Though I'm not sure that Fox is "fair and balanced", either.) DNC was clearly on Hillary's side, which is not what they're supposed to be doing. I accept that as well. To most people, though, "the election is rigged" means "the votes are not counted honestly". Do you have evidence of that?
        stray 10y ago
        You mean like Chambers County, Texas? They pulled electronic voting machines and switched to paper ballots because the machines were switching the presidential votes from Trump to Clinton for people who had voted all-republican? http://www.12newsnow.com/news/local/programming-issue-briefly-forces-chambers-county-voters-back-to-paper-ballots/341655957 http://www.12newsnow.com/news/local/programming-issue-briefl... http://www.fox26houston.com/news/local-news/213659018-story http://www.fox26houston.com/news/local-news/213659018-story I think machines that change votes to favor Clinton -- and ONLY Clinton -- counts as votes not counted honestly. Would you agree with that?
- not_kurt_godel 10y ago
  Instead of arguing with you, I would like to make a bet up to $100,000 cash that Hillary will win. Would you be amenable to this? I am 100% serious.
  - stray 10y ago
    I'll bet all of my money against your $100,000 -- if I had $100,000 I'd move to Cambodia.
    - not_kurt_godel 10y ago
      How much do you have?
      - stray 10y ago
        Not much. If we're taking risk proportional to what we have in the bank, the amount is immaterial -- an impartial 3rd party can verify that I'm not sandbagging (I do have to reserve rent, electric, internet, and gas bills though). But I could really use the $100,000 -- so how 'bout we set up an escrow to keep each other honest. Trust but verify and all that jazz.
        not_kurt_godel 10y ago
        I wound up investing through https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org . Much easier than betting with a stranger.
        stray 10y ago
        Sucks too, because with my new $100,000 -- I'd have been kicked back on a beach in Cambodia right now. Making Extended Vacation Great Again. At least I got some of your money on PredictIt.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  Carter did not have fake support in 1980. http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/ http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the...