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How risky is it to be an entrepreneur? 10-30% chance of sucesss. On the surface this might seem like bad odds but we are talking about businesses that have the
by chegra84 16y ago
How risky is it to be an entrepreneur?
10-30% chance of sucesss. On the surface this might seem like bad odds but we are talking about businesses that have the potential over a life time to be worth over 10million dollars.
And so the expected value of starting one is 0.1 * 10million = 1million.
These figures are arbitary but it's more to illustrate the point that they aren't that insane to start one.
The thing about entrepreneurship is that if you fail you can always try again. Try 12 times and that puts your probability of success to 70%. Assuming the trials are independent, but they are not most entrepreneurs will succeed in 4 tries.
- maxwin 16y ago"Assuming the trials are independent..." This is a big assumption. Same entrepreneur, same personality, more or less same skills, same contact networks... It can hardly be independent.
- chegra84 16y agoI know that's why i say that in actuality the number of trials is 4. Each trial compounds on the previous.
- capedcrusader 16y ago> Same entrepreneur Sure. > same personality, more or less same skills, same contact networks Absolutely not. The process of becoming changes your personality, your skillset, and who you know.
- mixmax 16y agoHow risky is it to be an entrepreneur? 10-30% chance of sucesss. I'm pretty sure it's a lot lower than that. Especially if you count success as exiting with fuck-you money[1] [1] http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fuck+you+money http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fuck+you+mone...
- chegra84 16y agoThat is the premise of the article. My point is more to illustrate odds go up significantly the more you play