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Renewable energy. Once things get bad enough the world will wake up and renewables will become huge.

maxerickson 10y ago
Renewables are already huge. Once batteries get a bit better and solar gets a bit cheaper, things will really get going. The deployment won't wait for the world to wake up about global warming.
- the_why_of_y 10y ago
  IEA raises its five-year renewable growth forecast as 2015 marks record year: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-it... "Last year marked a turning point for renewables. Led by wind and solar, renewables represented more than half the new power capacity around the world, reaching a record 153 Gigawatt (GW), 15% more than the previous year. Most of these gains were driven by record-level wind additions of 66 GW and solar PV additions of 49 GW."
ajmurmann 10y ago
I am wondering if by the time we wake up it's too late for renewable energy. Given that the methane is literally exploding out of the ground in Siberia it already might be too late. I am afraid it might be a likely scenario that the hod outs especially in the US will go from denial to resignation.
- irrational 10y ago
  Why are you afraid of the hod outs going from denial to resignation? At least if they are experiencing resignation they will be willing to admit there is a problem and do something about it (admittedly, it will be too late, but...)
  - tremon 10y ago
    The GP probably means resignation in the meaning of apathy, like "shit's going to hell anyway, so why bother trying to fix things".
    - simplemath 10y ago
      That switch can already be seen in the discourse
philipkglass 10y ago
I agree that renewables are going to be huge but I don't know what companies are going to get rich off of it. What will allow individual companies to build good profit margins? The biggest PV efficiency boost being implemented in the mainstream right now (passivated emitter cell structure) was invented in Australia in the 1980s but the patents expired before it was implemented on a large scale. Core patents for heterojunction cells (another approach to high efficiency on silicon) recently expired too so unrestricted competition can reign there also. The barriers to entry in PV manufacturing are pretty low and look likely to stay that way. Is wealth going to be made on installing rather than manufacturing hardware? It's also hard to see how e.g. SolarCity protects its margins from competition with other installers. Customer acquisition is a big chunk of costs right now, but if SolarCity spends a bunch on ads to get Americans thinking about rooftop solar that helps competing installers too. Look at the Australian market for a glimpse at the future (much lower installation costs, much higher penetration, broad consumer awareness without further advertising). EDIT: my own best guess is that if there's going to be a breakout company that achieves high margins on cleantech it's going to be in the area of storage. That's because a patented approach that can seriously lower storage costs or increase cycle life (which amounts to practically the same thing for stationary storage) is an advantage that can't be immediately cloned. OTOH I do not expect protected margins for companies that are lowering costs by scaling, e.g. Tesla's battery gigafactory. Historical reminder: at the beginning of the 2000s China had no solar PV industry to speak of. In less than a decade Chinese manufacturers went to dominating the market because IP barriers were minimal and they could scale larger very quickly once there was a state commitment.
- throwaway729 10y ago
  You can get insanely rich by betting on a trend and executing competently. Not "Forbes profile piece" rich, but definitely "never worry about money and pass that down a generation or two" rich. I think the question you're asking is "how does a millionaire/billionaire multiply their net worth in a decade or two", while that question I'm answering is "how do I go from salary slave to capitalist class in a decade or two"

Renewables are already huge. Once batteries get a bit better and solar gets a bit cheaper, things will really get going. The deployment won't wait for the world to wake up about global warming.

the_why_of_y 10y ago
IEA raises its five-year renewable growth forecast as 2015 marks record year: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-it... "Last year marked a turning point for renewables. Led by wind and solar, renewables represented more than half the new power capacity around the world, reaching a record 153 Gigawatt (GW), 15% more than the previous year. Most of these gains were driven by record-level wind additions of 66 GW and solar PV additions of 49 GW."

ajmurmann 10y ago

I am wondering if by the time we wake up it's too late for renewable energy. Given that the methane is literally exploding out of the ground in Siberia it already might be too late. I am afraid it might be a likely scenario that the hod outs especially in the US will go from denial to resignation.

irrational 10y ago
Why are you afraid of the hod outs going from denial to resignation? At least if they are experiencing resignation they will be willing to admit there is a problem and do something about it (admittedly, it will be too late, but...)
- tremon 10y ago
  The GP probably means resignation in the meaning of apathy, like "shit's going to hell anyway, so why bother trying to fix things".
  - simplemath 10y ago
    That switch can already be seen in the discourse

philipkglass 10y ago

I agree that renewables are going to be huge but I don't know what companies are going to get rich off of it. What will allow individual companies to build good profit margins? The biggest PV efficiency boost being implemented in the mainstream right now (passivated emitter cell structure) was invented in Australia in the 1980s but the patents expired before it was implemented on a large scale. Core patents for heterojunction cells (another approach to high efficiency on silicon) recently expired too so unrestricted competition can reign there also. The barriers to entry in PV manufacturing are pretty low and look likely to stay that way. Is wealth going to be made on installing rather than manufacturing hardware? It's also hard to see how e.g. SolarCity protects its margins from competition with other installers. Customer acquisition is a big chunk of costs right now, but if SolarCity spends a bunch on ads to get Americans thinking about rooftop solar that helps competing installers too. Look at the Australian market for a glimpse at the future (much lower installation costs, much higher penetration, broad consumer awareness without further advertising). EDIT: my own best guess is that if there's going to be a breakout company that achieves high margins on cleantech it's going to be in the area of storage. That's because a patented approach that can seriously lower storage costs or increase cycle life (which amounts to practically the same thing for stationary storage) is an advantage that can't be immediately cloned. OTOH I do not expect protected margins for companies that are lowering costs by scaling, e.g. Tesla's battery gigafactory. Historical reminder: at the beginning of the 2000s China had no solar PV industry to speak of. In less than a decade Chinese manufacturers went to dominating the market because IP barriers were minimal and they could scale larger very quickly once there was a state commitment.

throwaway729 10y ago
You can get insanely rich by betting on a trend and executing competently. Not "Forbes profile piece" rich, but definitely "never worry about money and pass that down a generation or two" rich. I think the question you're asking is "how does a millionaire/billionaire multiply their net worth in a decade or two", while that question I'm answering is "how do I go from salary slave to capitalist class in a decade or two"