9 ms·

What's the best way to profit from rising sea levels? Investing in land that's higher up in our nearby coastal cities?

by ajmurmann 10y ago

bergie 10y ago
Land reclamation companies, or buy a boat
- 13of40 10y ago
  Yeah, I think a lot of places are going to react by building dikes, at least at first, so if you could get into that business...
oliv__ 10y ago
This better be sarcasm
- logicallee 10y ago
  I don't see anything even slightly objectionable, unless ajmurmann were throwing around billions and helping regulate to ensure continuing rising sea levels. This poster is obviously viewing it as an inevitable externality and asking how they can invest profitably. They mention investing in higher land - but since coastal properties will literally disappear underwater, there could be other ways to profit. Additionally, solar power (which might be heavily subsidized), electric cars, even something insane like fusion-powered electric airplanes (a pipe dream, it's ridiculous) would all be reasonable answers. I mention the airplane thing as jetliners are a leading cause of Co2 emissions which is thougth responsible for this rising sea level. -- as literally trillions of dollars in seaside property become uninhabitable due to flooding (literally trillions, this is not an exaggeration) society might decide to instead spend $10,000,000,000,000 (that's $10 trillion) to halt it today. It's reasonable for OP to ask how given that society will be feeling a push to spend $10,000,000,000,000 - how he/she can be better off with this analysis done today. Zero objection and there is no moral component whatsoever to their question. EDIT: I'd like someone to explain the downvoting behavior (of my comment). As multiple of my examples show, the investment can be in alternative energy, for example, when obscene expanses of valuable coastland are being flooded and people are simply 'forced' to act. I don't understand why the question or my defense of it were downvoted.
- tjic 10y ago
  Trying to make a profit is the most effective way of helping people. I hope that it is NOT sarcasm.
  - jmcmichael 10y ago
    It's this kind of delusional faith in 'free market' capitalism and its profit incentive that has led us to the climate disaster that we face.
- ajmurmann 10y ago
  I'm not saying I want to make climate change worse or lobby for it out anything. Unfortunately climate change is happening and there are indicators that we already crossed the line to runaway climate change (methane coming out of the permafrost). Why should I not try to make a profit from this fact as long as I don't make it worse? How is this different than running a funeral home?
- wott 10y ago
  I don't think it is: we are on HN :-/
nonbel 10y ago
I don't think it would be the rising sea levels. It is the continent sized areas around the poles filled with previously inaccessible resources. So look at eg polar mining, drilling, shipping.
throwaway729 10y ago
Renewable energy. Once things get bad enough the world will wake up and renewables will become huge.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  Renewables are already huge. Once batteries get a bit better and solar gets a bit cheaper, things will really get going. The deployment won't wait for the world to wake up about global warming.
  - the_why_of_y 10y ago
    IEA raises its five-year renewable growth forecast as 2015 marks record year: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-it... "Last year marked a turning point for renewables. Led by wind and solar, renewables represented more than half the new power capacity around the world, reaching a record 153 Gigawatt (GW), 15% more than the previous year. Most of these gains were driven by record-level wind additions of 66 GW and solar PV additions of 49 GW."
- ajmurmann 10y ago
  I am wondering if by the time we wake up it's too late for renewable energy. Given that the methane is literally exploding out of the ground in Siberia it already might be too late. I am afraid it might be a likely scenario that the hod outs especially in the US will go from denial to resignation.
  - irrational 10y ago
    Why are you afraid of the hod outs going from denial to resignation? At least if they are experiencing resignation they will be willing to admit there is a problem and do something about it (admittedly, it will be too late, but...)
    - 10y ago
IsaacL 10y ago
Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime. That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2] "Pfeffer adds estimates of sea level rise due to thermal expansion and ice melting to calving approximations and concludes that SLR by the end of the century will range 0.8 to 2.0 m above present with an emphasis on the lower area of this range (Figure 7)." [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_sea_level#Sea-level_at_the_end_of_the_21st_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_sea_level#Sea-level_at_... [2] http://uk.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-levels-2014-4?r=US&IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-l...
- maze-le 10y ago
  > Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime. Thats true, but what most people don't know is that sea level rise don't necessarily mean catastrophic floods. A far bigger problem -- in our lifetime -- is aquifer salination, that is the intrusion of saltwater into coastal freshwater aquifers. This is already happening, in the Nile-valley, Benin and Cyprus but also in Louisiana and California. When the salinity of coastal Freshwater aquifers reaches a critical level, growing crops in coastal areas can be all but impossible.
- pmyjavec 10y ago
  "That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2]" How does that work? Coastal cities will have more than half a meter more water to deal with and additionally have to face larger more powerful storm surges on top of those 50cm. Don't forget at certain times of the year we see stronger tides. I also wonder if in 2007, the IPCC were more optimistic about our ability to curb emissions and took into account some of the feedback looks which are kicking in?
- irrational 10y ago
  Isn't Miami already having problems with flooding at high tide? It doesn't seem like it would take that big of a change from them to have flooding problems when it isn't high tide.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
jonnycowboy 10y ago
Shorting insurance companies.
- hash-set 10y ago
  You have no idea how hard it is to short something do you?
  - vidarh 10y ago
    That depends on what companies you want to short and your broker. I've shorted plenty where I just had to enter a few numbers and press a button... There's also any number of companies that let you do the equivalent via CFD's (Contract For Difference). Be warned: Many of them allow crazy levels of leverage that can wipe you out with tiny little swings. You're right it's not a given that you'll be able to "just" short whichever share you want, but it's hardly difficult to find a way of betting against a given company.
tajen 10y ago
There is the option of running a charity, one that would be ready to help at the right places by reurbanisng and reorganising territories. If you benefit from the charity (=if it gives you credit for politics or if you get a salary for the full-time job), then you're profiting. Be a consultant in XXIth century urbanization, be it to save energy, reduce pollution or to prepare for the worst. Once we get +2 degrees, countries might understand why +6 degrees might be harmful and massively subscribe to your services. Or start a weapon industry. See that Daesh thing? That's what happens when there's a slight draught every summer. Start a boat people company. They'll be in very much demand in 20 years. You'll object that you have much more money than that and you're not aiming for a mere salary. Well, you'll be happy to have the skill everyone needs when the rest of the world is fighting for survival. Just imagine what if the world votes on a complete ban on petrol and puts the world on an energy diet. Which is the only thing we must do.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
sesqu 10y ago
Investing in coastal construction, maintenance and emergency recovery seem fine ideas, as well as things like portable energy and long-distance shipping.
Spooky23 10y ago
Wait for a couple of years of heavy flooding/storm activity, buy distressed beachfront property at a discount, and flip it when you have a few years with no flooding.
rch 10y ago
Buy land in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. You'd be in good company.
h4nkoslo 10y ago
Given all of these market mechanisms & broad consensus about GW effects amongst a certain wealthy & market-moving slice of the population (coastal landowners) it is extremely odd that they continue to, eg, pump money into Miami real estate. And AFAICT there is no macro-hypothesis global warming hedge fund with any significant level of assets, so hey, money on the table. Their revealed belief would seem to be that the effects will be mitigated one way or another.
applecore 10y ago
Real estate. Invest in an area that can withstand or recover quickly from a significant sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions[1]. [1]: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/science/9-cities-to-live-in-if-youre-worried-about-climate-change.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/science/9-cities-to-live-i...
gjolund 10y ago
Guns.
kafkaesq 10y ago
I wouldn't mess with real estate speculation. The best route would be to look into ways to profit from protracted regional conflicts, massive (forced) dislocations of whole populations, famine, despair and hopelessness, generally. Because those are slated to be (and according to some measures, already are in certain areas) the primary impacts of climate change, for the geographically unlucky.
mzw_mzw 10y ago
Find the people who are claiming that the sea levels will rise and destroy our cities, and attempting to sell you things based on that. Buy stock in their company.
ommunist 10y ago
Blockchain and AI. Pack your consciousness into undeletable network of computers distributed in outer space and go take a break on Mars. My grandgrandsons will do ok by flintknapping, the usual means of exchange will be booze. There will be plenty of water for it.
vkou 10y ago
Invest into munitions manufacturers.

What's the best way to profit from rising sea levels? Investing in land that's higher up in our nearby coastal cities?

bergie 10y ago

Land reclamation companies, or buy a boat

13of40 10y ago
Yeah, I think a lot of places are going to react by building dikes, at least at first, so if you could get into that business...

oliv__ 10y ago

This better be sarcasm

logicallee 10y ago
I don't see anything even slightly objectionable, unless ajmurmann were throwing around billions and helping regulate to ensure continuing rising sea levels. This poster is obviously viewing it as an inevitable externality and asking how they can invest profitably. They mention investing in higher land - but since coastal properties will literally disappear underwater, there could be other ways to profit. Additionally, solar power (which might be heavily subsidized), electric cars, even something insane like fusion-powered electric airplanes (a pipe dream, it's ridiculous) would all be reasonable answers. I mention the airplane thing as jetliners are a leading cause of Co2 emissions which is thougth responsible for this rising sea level. -- as literally trillions of dollars in seaside property become uninhabitable due to flooding (literally trillions, this is not an exaggeration) society might decide to instead spend $10,000,000,000,000 (that's $10 trillion) to halt it today. It's reasonable for OP to ask how given that society will be feeling a push to spend $10,000,000,000,000 - how he/she can be better off with this analysis done today. Zero objection and there is no moral component whatsoever to their question. EDIT: I'd like someone to explain the downvoting behavior (of my comment). As multiple of my examples show, the investment can be in alternative energy, for example, when obscene expanses of valuable coastland are being flooded and people are simply 'forced' to act. I don't understand why the question or my defense of it were downvoted.
tjic 10y ago
Trying to make a profit is the most effective way of helping people. I hope that it is NOT sarcasm.
- jmcmichael 10y ago
  It's this kind of delusional faith in 'free market' capitalism and its profit incentive that has led us to the climate disaster that we face.
ajmurmann 10y ago
I'm not saying I want to make climate change worse or lobby for it out anything. Unfortunately climate change is happening and there are indicators that we already crossed the line to runaway climate change (methane coming out of the permafrost). Why should I not try to make a profit from this fact as long as I don't make it worse? How is this different than running a funeral home?
wott 10y ago
I don't think it is: we are on HN :-/

nonbel 10y ago

I don't think it would be the rising sea levels. It is the continent sized areas around the poles filled with previously inaccessible resources. So look at eg polar mining, drilling, shipping.

throwaway729 10y ago

Renewable energy. Once things get bad enough the world will wake up and renewables will become huge.

maxerickson 10y ago
Renewables are already huge. Once batteries get a bit better and solar gets a bit cheaper, things will really get going. The deployment won't wait for the world to wake up about global warming.
- the_why_of_y 10y ago
  IEA raises its five-year renewable growth forecast as 2015 marks record year: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-it... "Last year marked a turning point for renewables. Led by wind and solar, renewables represented more than half the new power capacity around the world, reaching a record 153 Gigawatt (GW), 15% more than the previous year. Most of these gains were driven by record-level wind additions of 66 GW and solar PV additions of 49 GW."
ajmurmann 10y ago
I am wondering if by the time we wake up it's too late for renewable energy. Given that the methane is literally exploding out of the ground in Siberia it already might be too late. I am afraid it might be a likely scenario that the hod outs especially in the US will go from denial to resignation.
- irrational 10y ago
  Why are you afraid of the hod outs going from denial to resignation? At least if they are experiencing resignation they will be willing to admit there is a problem and do something about it (admittedly, it will be too late, but...)
  - 10y ago

IsaacL 10y ago

Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime. That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2] "Pfeffer adds estimates of sea level rise due to thermal expansion and ice melting to calving approximations and concludes that SLR by the end of the century will range 0.8 to 2.0 m above present with an emphasis on the lower area of this range (Figure 7)." [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_sea_level#Sea-level_at_the_end_of_the_21st_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_sea_level#Sea-level_at_... [2] http://uk.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-levels-2014-4?r=US&IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-l...

maze-le 10y ago
> Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime. Thats true, but what most people don't know is that sea level rise don't necessarily mean catastrophic floods. A far bigger problem -- in our lifetime -- is aquifer salination, that is the intrusion of saltwater into coastal freshwater aquifers. This is already happening, in the Nile-valley, Benin and Cyprus but also in Louisiana and California. When the salinity of coastal Freshwater aquifers reaches a critical level, growing crops in coastal areas can be all but impossible.
pmyjavec 10y ago
"That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2]" How does that work? Coastal cities will have more than half a meter more water to deal with and additionally have to face larger more powerful storm surges on top of those 50cm. Don't forget at certain times of the year we see stronger tides. I also wonder if in 2007, the IPCC were more optimistic about our ability to curb emissions and took into account some of the feedback looks which are kicking in?
irrational 10y ago
Isn't Miami already having problems with flooding at high tide? It doesn't seem like it would take that big of a change from them to have flooding problems when it isn't high tide.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

jonnycowboy 10y ago

Shorting insurance companies.

hash-set 10y ago
You have no idea how hard it is to short something do you?
- vidarh 10y ago
  That depends on what companies you want to short and your broker. I've shorted plenty where I just had to enter a few numbers and press a button... There's also any number of companies that let you do the equivalent via CFD's (Contract For Difference). Be warned: Many of them allow crazy levels of leverage that can wipe you out with tiny little swings. You're right it's not a given that you'll be able to "just" short whichever share you want, but it's hardly difficult to find a way of betting against a given company.

tajen 10y ago

There is the option of running a charity, one that would be ready to help at the right places by reurbanisng and reorganising territories. If you benefit from the charity (=if it gives you credit for politics or if you get a salary for the full-time job), then you're profiting. Be a consultant in XXIth century urbanization, be it to save energy, reduce pollution or to prepare for the worst. Once we get +2 degrees, countries might understand why +6 degrees might be harmful and massively subscribe to your services. Or start a weapon industry. See that Daesh thing? That's what happens when there's a slight draught every summer. Start a boat people company. They'll be in very much demand in 20 years. You'll object that you have much more money than that and you're not aiming for a mere salary. Well, you'll be happy to have the skill everyone needs when the rest of the world is fighting for survival. Just imagine what if the world votes on a complete ban on petrol and puts the world on an energy diet. Which is the only thing we must do.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

sesqu 10y ago

Investing in coastal construction, maintenance and emergency recovery seem fine ideas, as well as things like portable energy and long-distance shipping.

Spooky23 10y ago

Wait for a couple of years of heavy flooding/storm activity, buy distressed beachfront property at a discount, and flip it when you have a few years with no flooding.

rch 10y ago

Buy land in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. You'd be in good company.

h4nkoslo 10y ago

Given all of these market mechanisms & broad consensus about GW effects amongst a certain wealthy & market-moving slice of the population (coastal landowners) it is extremely odd that they continue to, eg, pump money into Miami real estate. And AFAICT there is no macro-hypothesis global warming hedge fund with any significant level of assets, so hey, money on the table. Their revealed belief would seem to be that the effects will be mitigated one way or another.

applecore 10y ago

Real estate. Invest in an area that can withstand or recover quickly from a significant sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions[1]. [1]: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/science/9-cities-to-live-in-if-youre-worried-about-climate-change.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/science/9-cities-to-live-i...

gjolund 10y ago

Guns.

kafkaesq 10y ago

I wouldn't mess with real estate speculation. The best route would be to look into ways to profit from protracted regional conflicts, massive (forced) dislocations of whole populations, famine, despair and hopelessness, generally. Because those are slated to be (and according to some measures, already are in certain areas) the primary impacts of climate change, for the geographically unlucky.

mzw_mzw 10y ago

Find the people who are claiming that the sea levels will rise and destroy our cities, and attempting to sell you things based on that. Buy stock in their company.

ommunist 10y ago

Blockchain and AI. Pack your consciousness into undeletable network of computers distributed in outer space and go take a break on Mars. My grandgrandsons will do ok by flintknapping, the usual means of exchange will be booze. There will be plenty of water for it.

vkou 10y ago

Invest into munitions manufacturers.