3 ms·

You don't think it'll happen, or you don't think it'll be a revolution, or you're just arguing that we should prefer solutions that work today?

• lmm 10y ago
  It won't be a revolution. The fundamental constraint for our most economically productive zones is that you still need to unload x number of people in y time with z space available, and autonomous cars aren't any better at that than the regular kind. Look at the people walking across London Bridge or out of Cannon Street every morning, and imagine how much space it would take if each of them had to arrive in an individual car (or even 4 to a car) that had to pull over to unload them.
  • maxerickson 10y ago
    To me the hope isn't that self driving cars will fix transit problems, it's that they push more people away from car-first life decisions. (that's maybe a slightly hyperbolic phrase, but people that aren't dependent on owning a personal vehicle will make different choices)
    • lmm 10y ago
      In the dense cities where this matters most, people already don't own cars.
      • maxerickson 10y ago
        Sure, but the thought is more that it makes it easier to live in marginal car-less areas (which should then attract the investment to make them less marginal).
    • usrusr 10y ago
      I fully agree. If you can hail a robot at the price of driving using a car sharing service (as in short term rental, not as in "ride sharing"), the threshold to carless will fall a considerable bit. A lot more people are in the nearly-carless-but camp than actually carless. Current car sharing schemes only really work for short two way trips without much of a stay at the destination, since you would block the car for the whole duration. Robot taxis (just like their conventional counterparts) on the other hand could be booked separately for each direction,taking the duration of the stay out of the equation (except when it is so short that it is cheaper to keep the taxi waiting). Once on this level, it's just natural to replace the easy trips with public transportation.
  • inimino 10y ago
    I don't understand this perspective. Look at the person-hours spent in cars every day worldwide. Most of those are not in "our most economically productive zones" and a lot of them are spent just sitting in traffic. I can understand thinking that autonomous cars aren't going to happen anytime soon (it's harder than it looks) but I can't understand thinking it will happen and not be a hugely transformative shift.
    • tormeh 10y ago
      >a lot of them are spent just sitting in traffic. The parent is saying self-driving won't be a revolution because it won't fix that problem. You're still in traffic - just not holding the wheel.
• vtlynch 10y ago
  It can happen. I think right now, we are on path where it will happen. But it is simply the most expensive, inefficient, and environmentally damaging route we could take. In big cities it may indeed help reduce the need for cars, making the few cases where public transportation is wildly inefficient (i.e. getting from Manhattan to somewhere in Jersey <30 miles away) bearable. But besides the literal handful of U.S. cities with workable public transportation, this automated car revolution will not help anything besides making things more convenient. It will not allow us to come to terms with the massive pollution that cars generate. It will not help us achieve truly affordable transportation (even when this technology is perfected, it will not be able to give us $2.50 rides like public transportation can do today). Etc. With this autonomous cars movement, it looks like more Americans are finally ready to accept the idea of massive investment into transportation infrastructure (albeit by private companies instead of government). But the solution they are happy with is to re-purpose vehicles designed for individuals and make them into an adhoc transportation system. We need to think at true scale.