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If truck driving is already a high turnover job, there won't be displacement of a nature that gets political attention. Firms just won't hire new truckers to re
by massysett 10y ago
If truck driving is already a high turnover job, there won't be displacement of a nature that gets political attention. Firms just won't hire new truckers to replace the ones that leave. Trucking will be in transition a long time. The first self driving trucks will be fully attended. Then maybe they are unattended, but only on highways. Self driving in the city is likely years away.
This wouldn't be like shutting a factory or mine where people have worked for years and where they hoped to retire from. By the same token, you see self checkout machines everywhere, parking garages without manned booths, automatic toll roads, self-serve kiosks at restaurants, and self-serve gas with pay at the pump. No one ever paid any attention to displacement from those jobs because they are high turnover anyway.
- jenkstom 10y agoTrucking is a high turnover job largely because drivers are in such high demand. It is very easy, even lucrative, to job hop. Signing bonuses, new trucks, better pay.
- kevinalexbrown 10y agoWhat if, say, the trucking industry loses 50% of its jobs/salary in 5 years? That's a lot of displacement even in an industry with high turnover (I don't know if those numbers are realistic, but I do think there will be faster and more massive displacement than self-serve checkout and automatic toll roads). What I'm curious about is whether whatever industries truckers are heading to now can accommodate that many more workers without problems. Just because there's a high turnover doesn't necessarily mean that wherever truckers are heading now could handle 10x the influx of employees without funny consequences.