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The trucking industry is huge (say 1.5 million truckers alone, plus rest stops etc), and it will largely have disappeared as a result of this. Uber may want dri

The trucking industry is huge (say 1.5 million truckers alone, plus rest stops etc), and it will largely have disappeared as a result of this. Uber may want drivers in the cab now, but when it's reliable enough, I imagine it makes sense to just have drop-off points for the last few miles. In some sense it will be among the biggest economic transformations in recent history. There have been far bigger ones, but I can't think of one that has happened in the short timeframe expected of self-driving trucks. I don't think this point is controversial. At the same time, I've been very curious to see the overall economic impact, especially with displacing such a huge percentage of the US workforce. Interestingly, there's already a shortage in truckers per wikipedia. I found this fascinating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trucking_industry_in_the_United_States#Truck_drivers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trucking_industry_in_the_Unite... I imagine that people going into trucking see the writing on the wall. It will put a lot of truckers out of business, but the turnover is already crazy high, with many truckers already leaving the business entirely. This could be a very interesting case study on how to manage worker displacement effectively. I don't think anyone here is seriously advocating paying more money and lives for goods just to keep trucking jobs up (although more and more on HN one has to write 'defensively' to curb misinterpretation, i.e. I feel compelled to shout that I think this is a good idea). But it would be interesting to see where truckers are getting new jobs already, and whether those industries could use more. Are truckers leaving the industry going back into some other industrial job, back to school, unemployment?

massysett 10y ago
If truck driving is already a high turnover job, there won't be displacement of a nature that gets political attention. Firms just won't hire new truckers to replace the ones that leave. Trucking will be in transition a long time. The first self driving trucks will be fully attended. Then maybe they are unattended, but only on highways. Self driving in the city is likely years away. This wouldn't be like shutting a factory or mine where people have worked for years and where they hoped to retire from. By the same token, you see self checkout machines everywhere, parking garages without manned booths, automatic toll roads, self-serve kiosks at restaurants, and self-serve gas with pay at the pump. No one ever paid any attention to displacement from those jobs because they are high turnover anyway.
- jenkstom 10y ago
  Trucking is a high turnover job largely because drivers are in such high demand. It is very easy, even lucrative, to job hop. Signing bonuses, new trucks, better pay.
- kevinalexbrown 10y ago
  What if, say, the trucking industry loses 50% of its jobs/salary in 5 years? That's a lot of displacement even in an industry with high turnover (I don't know if those numbers are realistic, but I do think there will be faster and more massive displacement than self-serve checkout and automatic toll roads). What I'm curious about is whether whatever industries truckers are heading to now can accommodate that many more workers without problems. Just because there's a high turnover doesn't necessarily mean that wherever truckers are heading now could handle 10x the influx of employees without funny consequences.

massysett 10y ago

If truck driving is already a high turnover job, there won't be displacement of a nature that gets political attention. Firms just won't hire new truckers to replace the ones that leave. Trucking will be in transition a long time. The first self driving trucks will be fully attended. Then maybe they are unattended, but only on highways. Self driving in the city is likely years away. This wouldn't be like shutting a factory or mine where people have worked for years and where they hoped to retire from. By the same token, you see self checkout machines everywhere, parking garages without manned booths, automatic toll roads, self-serve kiosks at restaurants, and self-serve gas with pay at the pump. No one ever paid any attention to displacement from those jobs because they are high turnover anyway.

jenkstom 10y ago
Trucking is a high turnover job largely because drivers are in such high demand. It is very easy, even lucrative, to job hop. Signing bonuses, new trucks, better pay.
kevinalexbrown 10y ago
What if, say, the trucking industry loses 50% of its jobs/salary in 5 years? That's a lot of displacement even in an industry with high turnover (I don't know if those numbers are realistic, but I do think there will be faster and more massive displacement than self-serve checkout and automatic toll roads). What I'm curious about is whether whatever industries truckers are heading to now can accommodate that many more workers without problems. Just because there's a high turnover doesn't necessarily mean that wherever truckers are heading now could handle 10x the influx of employees without funny consequences.