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Are there going to be any jobs left? It seems like there are a lot of jobs that involve driving. This technology has the potential to displace a very large numb

by nissimk 10y ago

Are there going to be any jobs left? It seems like there are a lot of jobs that involve driving. This technology has the potential to displace a very large number of workers.

alvern 10y ago
The article cited 1.5 million jobs in the US trucking industry. That number seems low. edit; That number seems hard to define. Of the 7.1 million people employed throughout the economy in jobs related to trucking activity, 3.4 million were truck drivers in 2014. There are over 10 million CDL (Commercial Driver’s License) holders in the U.S., but most are not current drivers and not all are truck drivers. There are between 2.5 million and 3 million trucks on the road today that require a driver to have some sort of CDL. Of those trucks, 1. 6 million are tractor - trailers. Of those tractor - trailers, n o more than 800,000 are used in OTR (i.e., non - local) operations. Source [http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/Reports%20Trends%20and%20Statistics/10%206%2015%20ATAs%20Driver%20Shortage%20Report%202015.pdf http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/...] Page 4, footnote 6
- nissimk 10y ago
  Yes, but there are also the taxis and local delivery using trucks and cars. Are my children going to ever need to learn how to drive?
  - alvern 10y ago
    That's a very pertinent question. I guess it falls on if you own a personal vehicle that you maintain until they become of age. Easy financing for personal autos may soon dissipate when the self driving car comes of age. Learning to drive may become a bespoke thing in 30 years. You only learn because your father/mother/family is an enthusiast that kept a sports car or classic maintained. The commercial pick up truck could hold out as the last non-autonomous vehicle. Maintenance and service will still be done by humans, for now.
  - wastedhours 10y ago
    It's quite a fair question - not seen the stats recently, but combined with lower barriers to other transport options, increased learning and insurance costs, and density in cities, the numbers now learning to drive in their teens and twenties has dropped massively [0] [0] http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2279619/Number-young-people-learning-drive-plunges-rising-costs-drive-thousands-roads.html http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2279619/Numb...
- treehau5_ 10y ago
  There are entire mini economies in small rural towns off major interstates that are dependent on the inflow of truck drivers - gas stations, restaurants and diners, parts and tool shops. All these jobs would probably go, too.
ChrisBland 10y ago
Lots of people were put out of work when the loom was invented. We've gone through this before many times in human history
- treehau5_ 10y ago
  Putting aside what s ridiculous, downright asinine comparison that was in comparison with our economy now -- what an extremely cold, unempathetic comment. People, lots of people, with families are going to lose their livelihood. Many are advanced in age, and have only known one thing their whole life. We have a responsibility to our fellow neighbor. A 50 year old truck driver is not going to pick up a coding boot camp and get hired as a tech worker, maybe a small handful but it's unrealistic.
  - dotancohen 10y ago
    > Putting aside what s ridiculous, downright asinine > comparison that was in comparison with our economy now > what an extremely cold, unempathetic comment. You should read about the introduction of machines in 18th century England if you think that comparison is ridiculous, asinine or unsympathetic. Start with the Flying Shuttle and the Spinning Jenny. Hint: there was no social security or unemployment benefits then.
    - wastedhours 10y ago
      As has been mentioned elsewhere - there were other un/low skilled industries that people could move sideways into once they'd been displaced. Automation affected vertical industries in previous "revolutions", whereas now automation is impacting a vast swathe of un/low skilled industries simultaneously.
    - madaxe_again 10y ago
      And do you know how many starved, and how incredibly abysmal the conditions were for workers? Quality of living for the majority of people took a nosedive with the industrial revolution, and the pay-off took generations. Yes, they had gas street lighting and coal fires, but they no longer had the freedom they'd enjoyed since the end of feudalism, and once more found themselves serfs - just this time ten to a room in disease ridden urban slums rather than in their peasants cottage in whatever village they'd been sucked up from. Yeah, we're still here, but to assert that everything was positive is equally ridiculous. It took over a century for labour rights to start appearing, and for the system of governance to adapt to economic reality. Do you really want the same again?
cma 10y ago
If we banned railroads, we could create a lot of truck driving jobs right now. We need a strong safety net, a guaranteed minimum income, job retraining programs, etc., but we don't need to smash up our railroads to create more trucking jobs. I know you didn't suggest doing anything similar with future self-driving stuff. Just putting it out there, because a lot of people in the public (not in this thread) are. Same with things like coal-industry jobs displaced by solar.
- noer 10y ago
  Aren't railroads much more efficient at transporting freight than trucks are?
  - stevetrewick 10y ago
    If that were universally so, there would be no trucks.
    - takingflac 10y ago
      Yep, last mile along with schedule freedom gives trucks the advantage over trains in many situations. Trains are more efficient, but less flexible.
  - cma 10y ago
    Yes, and potentially driverless trucks are much more efficient than driven trucks, in terms of energy usage and human effort. Trains will probably still remain more efficient than either, I wasn't saying get rid of trains.
madengr 10y ago
It's a beer truck. As long as I have the last beer drinking job, I'm good.

by nissimk 10y ago

Are there going to be any jobs left? It seems like there are a lot of jobs that involve driving. This technology has the potential to displace a very large number of workers.

alvern 10y ago

The article cited 1.5 million jobs in the US trucking industry. That number seems low. edit; That number seems hard to define. Of the 7.1 million people employed throughout the economy in jobs related to trucking activity, 3.4 million were truck drivers in 2014. There are over 10 million CDL (Commercial Driver’s License) holders in the U.S., but most are not current drivers and not all are truck drivers. There are between 2.5 million and 3 million trucks on the road today that require a driver to have some sort of CDL. Of those trucks, 1. 6 million are tractor - trailers. Of those tractor - trailers, n o more than 800,000 are used in OTR (i.e., non - local) operations. Source [http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/Reports%20Trends%20and%20Statistics/10%206%2015%20ATAs%20Driver%20Shortage%20Report%202015.pdf http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/...] Page 4, footnote 6

nissimk 10y ago
Yes, but there are also the taxis and local delivery using trucks and cars. Are my children going to ever need to learn how to drive?
- alvern 10y ago
  That's a very pertinent question. I guess it falls on if you own a personal vehicle that you maintain until they become of age. Easy financing for personal autos may soon dissipate when the self driving car comes of age. Learning to drive may become a bespoke thing in 30 years. You only learn because your father/mother/family is an enthusiast that kept a sports car or classic maintained. The commercial pick up truck could hold out as the last non-autonomous vehicle. Maintenance and service will still be done by humans, for now.
- wastedhours 10y ago
  It's quite a fair question - not seen the stats recently, but combined with lower barriers to other transport options, increased learning and insurance costs, and density in cities, the numbers now learning to drive in their teens and twenties has dropped massively [0] [0] http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2279619/Number-young-people-learning-drive-plunges-rising-costs-drive-thousands-roads.html http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2279619/Numb...
treehau5_ 10y ago
There are entire mini economies in small rural towns off major interstates that are dependent on the inflow of truck drivers - gas stations, restaurants and diners, parts and tool shops. All these jobs would probably go, too.

ChrisBland 10y ago

Lots of people were put out of work when the loom was invented. We've gone through this before many times in human history

treehau5_ 10y ago
Putting aside what s ridiculous, downright asinine comparison that was in comparison with our economy now -- what an extremely cold, unempathetic comment. People, lots of people, with families are going to lose their livelihood. Many are advanced in age, and have only known one thing their whole life. We have a responsibility to our fellow neighbor. A 50 year old truck driver is not going to pick up a coding boot camp and get hired as a tech worker, maybe a small handful but it's unrealistic.
- dotancohen 10y ago
  > Putting aside what s ridiculous, downright asinine > comparison that was in comparison with our economy now > what an extremely cold, unempathetic comment. You should read about the introduction of machines in 18th century England if you think that comparison is ridiculous, asinine or unsympathetic. Start with the Flying Shuttle and the Spinning Jenny. Hint: there was no social security or unemployment benefits then.
  - wastedhours 10y ago
    As has been mentioned elsewhere - there were other un/low skilled industries that people could move sideways into once they'd been displaced. Automation affected vertical industries in previous "revolutions", whereas now automation is impacting a vast swathe of un/low skilled industries simultaneously.
  - madaxe_again 10y ago
    And do you know how many starved, and how incredibly abysmal the conditions were for workers? Quality of living for the majority of people took a nosedive with the industrial revolution, and the pay-off took generations. Yes, they had gas street lighting and coal fires, but they no longer had the freedom they'd enjoyed since the end of feudalism, and once more found themselves serfs - just this time ten to a room in disease ridden urban slums rather than in their peasants cottage in whatever village they'd been sucked up from. Yeah, we're still here, but to assert that everything was positive is equally ridiculous. It took over a century for labour rights to start appearing, and for the system of governance to adapt to economic reality. Do you really want the same again?

cma 10y ago

If we banned railroads, we could create a lot of truck driving jobs right now. We need a strong safety net, a guaranteed minimum income, job retraining programs, etc., but we don't need to smash up our railroads to create more trucking jobs. I know you didn't suggest doing anything similar with future self-driving stuff. Just putting it out there, because a lot of people in the public (not in this thread) are. Same with things like coal-industry jobs displaced by solar.

noer 10y ago
Aren't railroads much more efficient at transporting freight than trucks are?
- stevetrewick 10y ago
  If that were universally so, there would be no trucks.
  - takingflac 10y ago
    Yep, last mile along with schedule freedom gives trucks the advantage over trains in many situations. Trains are more efficient, but less flexible.
- cma 10y ago
  Yes, and potentially driverless trucks are much more efficient than driven trucks, in terms of energy usage and human effort. Trains will probably still remain more efficient than either, I wasn't saying get rid of trains.

madengr 10y ago

It's a beer truck. As long as I have the last beer drinking job, I'm good.