>> It shows how fundamentally difficult it is to make credible business forecasts in technology. > Becoming a major success is fundamentally hard and predictin

>> It shows how fundamentally difficult it is to make credible business forecasts in technology. > Becoming a major success is fundamentally hard and predicting the future is fundamentally hard, so it shouldn't be much of a surprise. And still, many people assign significance to whether a particular startup was selected (or not) for Techcrunch 40, or was funded by YCombinator. Even more people believe in cherry-picking stocks as a sound investment strategy.