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It will be interesting to see consequences of referendum once BREXIT actually happened (the procedure is not yet started). In my opinion UK will get similar de

It will be interesting to see consequences of referendum once BREXIT actually happened (the procedure is not yet started). In my opinion UK will get similar deal to Switzerland. I would not base my forecasts on short term fluctuations in GBP or in assumptions that migration will decrease. Both will depend on actual deal UK will get with EU and I'm quite sure this deal will be a win-win for both. Because both EU and UK will get better by continuing to trade together than not to. UK is a major consumer for EU market and this won't change - and it's in EU best interest to make sure this won't change.

usgroup 10y ago
Indeed, but the whole purpose of Brexit was to decrease migration. It's a publicly stated red-line for the negotiating team. Further, there is no way to say whether the fluctuation in GBP is short term ... The new world may turn the UK into a net exporter, in which case the GBP may stay lower for much longer.
- ramtatatam 10y ago
  As far as I remember this point of pro-leave campaign was quite misunderstood by media. My understanding always was that UK does not want to be told who to accept and how many. UK is very much interested in migration, just they would favor skilled and highly educated people (like Switzerland do). Actually funny thing is that there is a lot of immigration to UK from outside of EU :-) And I would not expect that will change because of Brexit...
  - usgroup 10y ago
    I think it likely will because GBP as an export currency has lost almost 20%. It's just not as interesting a deal. Unless wages are forced up to attract foreign pros which ends up being a further hit to business.
    - ramtatatam 10y ago
      Yeah, I'm tracking GBP closely and it's hitting levels from 2.5-3 years ago (though still far from 6-years minimum). Current short-term trend is even bullish :-) Fingers crossed all those bad forecasts are not based on facts :-)
      - DomBlack 10y ago
        I'm interested in what you're looking at which says that. Against the dollar 2.5-3 years ago GBP was never below 1.47, since the referendum, the highest it has been is 1.34 and that was the lowest we got in the 2008/2009 crash.
        ramtatatam 10y ago
        Ah sorry, I should have mentioned I was tracking GBP against PLN (much much less known currency ;-) )
        NetStrikeForce 10y ago
        Against EUR it is not doing THAT bad (but still BAD), but we were over 1.30 in GBPEUR and now we're 1.12 (and hit lows of 1.10 and even 1.09). For me that causes a problem as I'm saving for a house in the continent, which I have to pay in EUR, now that I might have to leave the UK as my status is not guaranteed: https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-19/debates/F1337420-EBD9-413C-949B-A4AEA0832B2C/RightsOfEUNationals https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-19/debates/F13...
  - Scarblac 10y ago
    Switzerland's model is exactly what the UK has now: EU citizens are allowed to work in Switzerland. Switzerland isn't allowed to make special restrictions on some groups of people. They want to because they had a referendum on it and it's legally binding to them, but the EU has told them that that means losing free market access (e.g., https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl... ).
    - ramtatatam 10y ago
      I'm afraid it's not. As far as I'm aware Switzerland cannot be told by EU to accept whatever number of immigrants from any place in the world. Swiss benefits model is substantially different than any other European country and I can't imagine any non-skilled immigrant would try to get to Switzerland to exploit it.. Apart from that tabloids will make a lot of noise around this, obviously it's great topic to get some news :-) In this uncertain time it is not that easy to make predictions, especially when it comes to such high level.
      - Scarblac 10y ago
        Same as the UK. Both the UK and Switzerland have to allow people from the EU to travel into and work in their country, don't need to provide them with benefits if they don't have a job. In return UK and Swiss citizens have the same rights in the rest of the EU. Both the UK and Switzerland can decide to allow people from outside the EU in whatever way they want. In 2015 during the migrant crisis EU governments decided to relocate 160,000 refugees over Europe, but the UK opted out ( http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-map-EU-refugee-quota http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-ma... ) so this doesn't apply to them.
        ramtatatam 10y ago
        I don't agree, it's not same as the UK - talking from experience. Swiss citizens do not have to allow people from EU to travel and work, the amount of formalities you have to pass is much more than if you was moving to UK.
  - pjc50 10y ago
    The UK already has full control of non-EU immigration and stringent criteria. Are you getting immigration, asylum, and the Dublin convention n refugees mixed up?
Tomte 10y ago
It took Switzerland decades to get all those trade deals and bilateral agreements. Without the need to negotiate lots and lots of agreements with other countries at the same time. The UK will wake up very soon, very hard to a bleak reality.
- vixen99 10y ago
  Perhaps I'm wrong but I get the impression that most 'remainers' very much hope this will be the case.
  - usgroup 10y ago
    I think it's likely that much of what is said right now is posturing for the domestic populations. However I don't think it's in EU political interest to offer the UK a good deal. I fear we will end up worse off overall but what I particularly want to know about is how it will effect dev...
    - ramtatatam 10y ago
      Why do you think it's not in EU's best interest to trade with UK? UK is over 65mln country, great market - certainly not the one you would want to get isolated from.
      - usgroup 10y ago
        It is in their interest; however the political integrity of the EU is more in their interest and the two are at odds with each other. Further, it isn't about isolation, rather the nature of the deal. The UK must trade with the EU at least in part because the current account deficit implies that we provide value add services: the initial value of which needs to be imported.
        ramtatatam 10y ago
        We leave in such interesting times :-) We will observe very future of this political project. It evolved a lot since it's beginnings, I can't wait to see what will it evolve to.
Scarblac 10y ago
They already have the win-win deal. That's what they're exiting.
- ramtatatam 10y ago
  It seems more than 50% of Britons (who bothered to go and vote) do not think same way as you do.. Otherwise if they had such a great deal with the EU why would they vote to leave? I believe it's their right to revise whatever agreement they had with EU and each other country is more than welcome to do the same. It's what happens when you are trading, every now and then people want to renegotiate their terms and there is nothing wrong about it.
  - Scarblac 10y ago
    They have been led to believe they can have some kind of fantasy deal that would be even better for them (no payments to Europe so the NHS can get more, control over immigration, but all the pros of the EU unchanged), but forget completely that that would not be "win-win" from the viewpoint of the EU and thus won't happen. They're not revising their agreement, they're kicking it out entirely (work that took decades) and want to re-start on their own terms. People can make choices and there's nothing "wrong" about that, but some choices are smarter and less damaging for everyone involved than others.
    - ramtatatam 10y ago
      We shall see :-) Making statements about the future in this uncertain time is somewhat loaded with great error. And I believe it will be for good to Britons. Cheer up :-)

usgroup 10y ago

Indeed, but the whole purpose of Brexit was to decrease migration. It's a publicly stated red-line for the negotiating team. Further, there is no way to say whether the fluctuation in GBP is short term ... The new world may turn the UK into a net exporter, in which case the GBP may stay lower for much longer.

ramtatatam 10y ago
As far as I remember this point of pro-leave campaign was quite misunderstood by media. My understanding always was that UK does not want to be told who to accept and how many. UK is very much interested in migration, just they would favor skilled and highly educated people (like Switzerland do). Actually funny thing is that there is a lot of immigration to UK from outside of EU :-) And I would not expect that will change because of Brexit...
- usgroup 10y ago
  I think it likely will because GBP as an export currency has lost almost 20%. It's just not as interesting a deal. Unless wages are forced up to attract foreign pros which ends up being a further hit to business.
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    Yeah, I'm tracking GBP closely and it's hitting levels from 2.5-3 years ago (though still far from 6-years minimum). Current short-term trend is even bullish :-) Fingers crossed all those bad forecasts are not based on facts :-)
    - DomBlack 10y ago
      I'm interested in what you're looking at which says that. Against the dollar 2.5-3 years ago GBP was never below 1.47, since the referendum, the highest it has been is 1.34 and that was the lowest we got in the 2008/2009 crash.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        Ah sorry, I should have mentioned I was tracking GBP against PLN (much much less known currency ;-) )
        NetStrikeForce 10y ago
        Against EUR it is not doing THAT bad (but still BAD), but we were over 1.30 in GBPEUR and now we're 1.12 (and hit lows of 1.10 and even 1.09). For me that causes a problem as I'm saving for a house in the continent, which I have to pay in EUR, now that I might have to leave the UK as my status is not guaranteed: https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-19/debates/F1337420-EBD9-413C-949B-A4AEA0832B2C/RightsOfEUNationals https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-19/debates/F13...
- Scarblac 10y ago
  Switzerland's model is exactly what the UK has now: EU citizens are allowed to work in Switzerland. Switzerland isn't allowed to make special restrictions on some groups of people. They want to because they had a referendum on it and it's legally binding to them, but the EU has told them that that means losing free market access (e.g., https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl... ).
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    I'm afraid it's not. As far as I'm aware Switzerland cannot be told by EU to accept whatever number of immigrants from any place in the world. Swiss benefits model is substantially different than any other European country and I can't imagine any non-skilled immigrant would try to get to Switzerland to exploit it.. Apart from that tabloids will make a lot of noise around this, obviously it's great topic to get some news :-) In this uncertain time it is not that easy to make predictions, especially when it comes to such high level.
    - Scarblac 10y ago
      Same as the UK. Both the UK and Switzerland have to allow people from the EU to travel into and work in their country, don't need to provide them with benefits if they don't have a job. In return UK and Swiss citizens have the same rights in the rest of the EU. Both the UK and Switzerland can decide to allow people from outside the EU in whatever way they want. In 2015 during the migrant crisis EU governments decided to relocate 160,000 refugees over Europe, but the UK opted out ( http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-map-EU-refugee-quota http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-ma... ) so this doesn't apply to them.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        I don't agree, it's not same as the UK - talking from experience. Swiss citizens do not have to allow people from EU to travel and work, the amount of formalities you have to pass is much more than if you was moving to UK.
- pjc50 10y ago
  The UK already has full control of non-EU immigration and stringent criteria. Are you getting immigration, asylum, and the Dublin convention n refugees mixed up?

Tomte 10y ago

It took Switzerland decades to get all those trade deals and bilateral agreements. Without the need to negotiate lots and lots of agreements with other countries at the same time. The UK will wake up very soon, very hard to a bleak reality.

vixen99 10y ago
Perhaps I'm wrong but I get the impression that most 'remainers' very much hope this will be the case.
- usgroup 10y ago
  I think it's likely that much of what is said right now is posturing for the domestic populations. However I don't think it's in EU political interest to offer the UK a good deal. I fear we will end up worse off overall but what I particularly want to know about is how it will effect dev...
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    Why do you think it's not in EU's best interest to trade with UK? UK is over 65mln country, great market - certainly not the one you would want to get isolated from.
    - usgroup 10y ago
      It is in their interest; however the political integrity of the EU is more in their interest and the two are at odds with each other. Further, it isn't about isolation, rather the nature of the deal. The UK must trade with the EU at least in part because the current account deficit implies that we provide value add services: the initial value of which needs to be imported.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        We leave in such interesting times :-) We will observe very future of this political project. It evolved a lot since it's beginnings, I can't wait to see what will it evolve to.

Scarblac 10y ago

They already have the win-win deal. That's what they're exiting.

ramtatatam 10y ago
It seems more than 50% of Britons (who bothered to go and vote) do not think same way as you do.. Otherwise if they had such a great deal with the EU why would they vote to leave? I believe it's their right to revise whatever agreement they had with EU and each other country is more than welcome to do the same. It's what happens when you are trading, every now and then people want to renegotiate their terms and there is nothing wrong about it.
- Scarblac 10y ago
  They have been led to believe they can have some kind of fantasy deal that would be even better for them (no payments to Europe so the NHS can get more, control over immigration, but all the pros of the EU unchanged), but forget completely that that would not be "win-win" from the viewpoint of the EU and thus won't happen. They're not revising their agreement, they're kicking it out entirely (work that took decades) and want to re-start on their own terms. People can make choices and there's nothing "wrong" about that, but some choices are smarter and less damaging for everyone involved than others.
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    We shall see :-) Making statements about the future in this uncertain time is somewhat loaded with great error. And I believe it will be for good to Britons. Cheer up :-)