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Ask HN: Effect of Brexit on DEV Jobs in UK?

29 points by usgroup 10y ago

Given Brexit, over the next few years, in London: 1. What will happen to DEMAND and SUPPLY for dev roles? 2. What will happen to the CONTRACT and PERM markets for dev roles? My opinion: investment dearth will lead to decreased DEMAND overall and slow CONTRACT market, as business focuses on core and prunes more speculative investment. PERM / CONTRACT ratio increases as cut to commercial property prices and labour costs tempts foreign companies to set up ops in UK. Foreign pros in UK leave for a better deal elsewhere, net migration decreases for similar reasons (~20% cut to GBPUSD, 1% inflation...).

doc_holliday 10y ago
"(~20% cut to GBPUSD, 1% inflation...)" IMO we are about to hit much more than 1% inflation with the devaluation of our currency. Think how much petrol has gone up, food is about to go up, imports are going up etc. We will have much more than 1% inflation annually next year I think, and I don't think wages will keep up. That is if things go ahead as they currently are. On the flipside this makes Devs in the UK much cheaper, and if we have the combination of inflation and stagnant wages then the housing market will collapse, which will eventually make UK more competitive.
- usgroup 10y ago
  What do you think will happen RE Q1 and Q2 over the next few years? Net increase DEMAND for DEV? What about SUPPLY of dev?
  - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
    I think demand will be less affected in the short term as EU nationals might be starting consider offers outside the UK (uncertainty + low GBPEUR). My anecdotal data has a count of 2 people having accepted offers to leave between the Brexit vote and now, both citing Brexit as a reason. Partly from the feeling rejected side, partly from the pragmatic point of view.
ramtatatam 10y ago
It will be interesting to see consequences of referendum once BREXIT actually happened (the procedure is not yet started). In my opinion UK will get similar deal to Switzerland. I would not base my forecasts on short term fluctuations in GBP or in assumptions that migration will decrease. Both will depend on actual deal UK will get with EU and I'm quite sure this deal will be a win-win for both. Because both EU and UK will get better by continuing to trade together than not to. UK is a major consumer for EU market and this won't change - and it's in EU best interest to make sure this won't change.
- usgroup 10y ago
  Indeed, but the whole purpose of Brexit was to decrease migration. It's a publicly stated red-line for the negotiating team. Further, there is no way to say whether the fluctuation in GBP is short term ... The new world may turn the UK into a net exporter, in which case the GBP may stay lower for much longer.
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    As far as I remember this point of pro-leave campaign was quite misunderstood by media. My understanding always was that UK does not want to be told who to accept and how many. UK is very much interested in migration, just they would favor skilled and highly educated people (like Switzerland do). Actually funny thing is that there is a lot of immigration to UK from outside of EU :-) And I would not expect that will change because of Brexit...
    - usgroup 10y ago
      I think it likely will because GBP as an export currency has lost almost 20%. It's just not as interesting a deal. Unless wages are forced up to attract foreign pros which ends up being a further hit to business.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        Yeah, I'm tracking GBP closely and it's hitting levels from 2.5-3 years ago (though still far from 6-years minimum). Current short-term trend is even bullish :-) Fingers crossed all those bad forecasts are not based on facts :-)
user5994461 10y ago
IMO: It had no effect on high end tech jobs. From the recruiters I talked to recently, it had no effect. From the interviews I had recently, it had no effect. Still recruiting and expanding. One of my past company recently interviewed with journalists to announce that they are extending their operations and opening a new office in the USA. The next day the news published an article "<company> is leaving the UK after the Brexit". I'll let you imagine the surprise when we discovered the article the next morning. That's just 100% wrong and misleading. I'm now willing to extrapolate that 90% of brexit announcements are fake invented by journalists for sensationalism. Nothing is happening, really. ----- Regarding the GBP exchange rate. As in all the major cities in the world, most of the income goes to pay the rent. The rent is in local currency, unaffected by USD-EUR-GBP rate. We might hit a +10% on food price (and gaz) in a near future. It might get harsh[er] for big families and low income jobs, it's fine for people with good salaries. (Not to mention free catered lunches at tech jobs :D)
- collyw 10y ago
  > 90% of brexit announcements are fake While I agree there is likely a lot of sensationalism, the pound falling to its lowest level in years isn't just made up by journalists.
- doc_holliday 10y ago
  "We might hit a +10% on food price (and gaz) in a near future. It might get harsh[er] for big families and low income jobs, it's fine for people with good salaries." However, those people with good salaries whilst seeing inflation running at 10% will likely not see a wage increase to match. And they may also have just bought a house... At the same time as 10% inflation, the BoE may eventually have to raise interest rates to try curb capital flight from Sterling and make it attractive again. Higher interest rates & stagnant wages lead to people not being able to keep up with mortgage payments (which have just increased and so has everything else but their wage). This leads to defaults on mortgages at the same time as house prices are falling because people cannot service such large mortgages at 10% interest. That will hurt a lot of people with good salaries in the short term.
  - 10y ago
pyb 10y ago
London's tech industry relies heavily on immigration, as well as easy access to other EU markets. I'm afraid we'll see a big shift to Berlin and other places. I say this as someone who'd only reluctantly relocate from London, but I can't see how the tech industry will stay afloat, given recent developments.
IsaacL 10y ago
Software developers can easily "export" (i.e., take remote jobs for foreign companies), and a cheaper pound makes them more attractive. I doubt many tech jobs will move to Berlin -- from what I've heard, despite the hype, London's tech scene is much bigger and more developed. The big threat is from finance. Tech salaries are held up by the huge numbers of devs working for banks, and that would change if there's a major impact to the finance sector. Apparently the City is pretty robust, though, and Euro-related business is only a small amount of their activity.
- usgroup 10y ago
  > ... Euro-related business is only a small amount of their activity. I'd doubt this since the clearing of Euro denominated derivatives are done in London. > Software developers can easily "export" (i.e., take remote jobs for foreign companies)... I'm not sure about this simply because the salaries in London are so much larger than everywhere else in the UK. You'd think other regions would be able to export to London given the huge disparity but they don't. Are you sure this is true for other cities?
heisenbit 10y ago
It may be worth distinguishing tech vs. financial tech. Tech will benefit from lower exchange rate. Also tech is quite fungible and crosses boundaries easily. Financial tech is different. 1) Banking is a huge part of London economy and London is a big part of the UK 2) Financial Tech is very dependent on banking 3) Banking in London in the past has huge structural advantages as a bride/conduit with English language, proximity to US markets and no barrier to the rest of Europe) which it is going to loose. London's European organizations will either split or wholly shift to other locations (Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin). As financial tech dominates particularly in the UK there will be a negative impact. To what extent it is cushioned by lower immigration remains to be seen. Certainly not in the short term.
heldrida 10y ago
(living in London for 5 years, Non-British / EU citizen) Took me 10 weeks to find a new opportunity (recently) applied for permanent and freelance/contractor/contract roles. Comparing with the previous years, where it took me less than 2 to 5 days, there's a difference. Housing has never been so expensive & the currency never been this low - during the period I've lived here. Contracting - some companies stopped paying better for overtime work: Weekends, bank holidays are the same rate and not 1.5 or 2 units.

Scarblac 10y ago

Switzerland's model is exactly what the UK has now: EU citizens are allowed to work in Switzerland. Switzerland isn't allowed to make special restrictions on some groups of people. They want to because they had a referendum on it and it's legally binding to them, but the EU has told them that that means losing free market access (e.g., https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl... ).

ramtatatam 10y ago
I'm afraid it's not. As far as I'm aware Switzerland cannot be told by EU to accept whatever number of immigrants from any place in the world. Swiss benefits model is substantially different than any other European country and I can't imagine any non-skilled immigrant would try to get to Switzerland to exploit it.. Apart from that tabloids will make a lot of noise around this, obviously it's great topic to get some news :-) In this uncertain time it is not that easy to make predictions, especially when it comes to such high level.
- Scarblac 10y ago
  Same as the UK. Both the UK and Switzerland have to allow people from the EU to travel into and work in their country, don't need to provide them with benefits if they don't have a job. In return UK and Swiss citizens have the same rights in the rest of the EU. Both the UK and Switzerland can decide to allow people from outside the EU in whatever way they want. In 2015 during the migrant crisis EU governments decided to relocate 160,000 refugees over Europe, but the UK opted out ( http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-map-EU-refugee-quota http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/607349/Migrant-crisis-ma... ) so this doesn't apply to them.
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    I don't agree, it's not same as the UK - talking from experience. Swiss citizens do not have to allow people from EU to travel and work, the amount of formalities you have to pass is much more than if you was moving to UK.
    - Scarblac 10y ago
      When was that? In theory the rules for EU citizens are exactly the same ( https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/en/home/themen/fza_schweiz-eu-efta.html https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/en/home/themen/fza_schweiz-eu-e... ) but in practice implementation may differ, I guess. Did you have a job there before moving?
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        A few years ago I was applying for a job in there. Did not get it in the end but got close enough to start discovering ins and outs of their system - UK is a heaven compared to Switzerland :-)

Tomte 10y ago

It took Switzerland decades to get all those trade deals and bilateral agreements. Without the need to negotiate lots and lots of agreements with other countries at the same time. The UK will wake up very soon, very hard to a bleak reality.

vixen99 10y ago
Perhaps I'm wrong but I get the impression that most 'remainers' very much hope this will be the case.
- usgroup 10y ago
  I think it's likely that much of what is said right now is posturing for the domestic populations. However I don't think it's in EU political interest to offer the UK a good deal. I fear we will end up worse off overall but what I particularly want to know about is how it will effect dev...
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    Why do you think it's not in EU's best interest to trade with UK? UK is over 65mln country, great market - certainly not the one you would want to get isolated from.
    - usgroup 10y ago
      It is in their interest; however the political integrity of the EU is more in their interest and the two are at odds with each other. Further, it isn't about isolation, rather the nature of the deal. The UK must trade with the EU at least in part because the current account deficit implies that we provide value add services: the initial value of which needs to be imported.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        We leave in such interesting times :-) We will observe very future of this political project. It evolved a lot since it's beginnings, I can't wait to see what will it evolve to.
    - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
      The EU is many countires, only a few of them have any significant exports to the UK but they all have to agree.
    - pjc50 10y ago
      It's not so much whether to trade but on what terms, in what goods, whether there is a customs barrier and whether EU rules conflict with other deals. E.g. when we're out of the CFP, will Spain block imports of UK seafood in retaliation? If we subsided e.g. steel, would that be subject to anti dumping tariffs? There's an almost infinite amount of detail in which we could lose out.
      - ramtatatam 10y ago
        I would not make such predictions - there is always 'what-if' game we can play. 'what-if' UK gets trading boost with Australia? ;-) Lets stay positive and make sure we grow our businesses (as usual).
ramtatatam 10y ago
I'm not sure what would make UK not to get such agreements especially if both EU and UK are interested in getting them. What politicians are saying is a bit off from actual business and it's in everybody's business to keep trading and making money :-) Anything other than that - I would rather prefer not to make bold statements that `UK will wake up` etc. until I actually see the deal (ignoring all white noise produced by politicians and media).
- Tomte 10y ago
  A deal like Switzerland? Really? Because Switzerland has to let EU citizens in to live and work there. Not quite as freely as if they were Schengen members, but still.
  - ramtatatam 10y ago
    The whole point of immigration was not that immigration itself is wrong but that decision weather and who to let in was made outside UK. As you can see Switzerland has got fairly nice model where they attract highly skilled workforce and there is nothing wrong about trying to get the same model in UK. And I'm really cheering Brits to get there. Knowing their pragmatism they will.
    - usgroup 10y ago
      ... unfortunately the labour pyramid is such that the unskilled workers are required in much larger numbers than the skilled workers. If they are not imported then the wages would need to go up very substantially before those from the UK would be willing to wait tables, flip burgers, etc. Labour cost inflation from bottom up kills margin.
    - pjc50 10y ago
      This isn't true though. Both countries are currently part of free movement arrangements: that is, anyone with an EU passport must be let in and allowed to work as if they were a local. Swiss have also voted to change this and also haven't worked out how. http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/swiss-eu-compromise-free-movement/ http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/swiss-eu-compromise-free...