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There aren't many precedents for huge global industries that went from AAA-bondable to rapid obsolescence. There are some that should have, like cigarettes, but
by tlb 10y ago
There aren't many precedents for huge global industries that went from AAA-bondable to rapid obsolescence. There are some that should have, like cigarettes, but they found ways of hanging on. Or international toll calls, still a many-billion dollar business. Perhaps oil will be like that: since the marginal cost is so low, producers will keep it flowing many decades after it made sense. And like tobacco, perhaps we'll pay oil fields to not produce.
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoHm. Horses. Trains. Newspapers. Radio. VCRs.
- tlb 10y agoThere weren't huge companies with AAA credit ratings making horses. Railroads did have bond financing, but the decline has been extremely slow. VCR companies also made DVD players and other consumer electronics, so no bankruptcies have resulted. Radio is still pretty big. Newspapers might be the closest parallel, but they haven't completely crashed yet and might well bounce back.
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoZenith? Many individual carriage companies - Columbus Buggy Company for instance. But not world-wide, very local.
- rodgerd 10y ago> like cigarettes Who will probably provide the template for the decline of petrol: fight like hell in the courts and lobbies to try and stay relevant in the first world, use ISDS mechanisms and so on, while cranking up campaigns in the third world to cover your losses.
- rodgerd 10y ago> like cigarettes Who will probably provide the template for the decline of petrol: fight like hell in the courts and lobbies to try and stay relevant in the first world, use ISDS mechanisms and so on, while cranking up campaigns in the third world to cover your losses.