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I find it strange that articles such as this one states these two things at the same time: 1. Battery cost is falling and EVs will be as affordable as their ga

by Torkel 10y ago

I find it strange that articles such as this one states these two things at the same time: 1. Battery cost is falling and EVs will be as affordable as their gasoline counterparts in six years 2. It will take until 2030-2040 until the demand for oil starts contracting It seems to me like you get to pick only one of these statements. Once EVs reach affordability parity with ICE autos my guess is that things will hit the steep part of an S-curve.

the8472 10y ago
There is inertia in the market. The existing fleet needs to be replaced. So even if EVs were equally affordable today it would still take years for them to reach a high market penetration. And some ICE cars would also be sold in non-negligible amounts if those cars merely reached parity. You actually want them to be more affordable than the competition.
- Torkel 10y ago
  I guess that's the reasoning... But factor in cheaper EV cost of driving, and posit: taxis, delivery vehicles - changes fast to cheapest (EV) Private and corporate leases - 2-3 years between replacements. Will move to cheapest option (EV) How much of total driving is made in these categories and how much is "long tail" of private driving in old cars? S curve I say.
Gustomaximus 10y ago
6 years takes us to 2022. That gives 8+ years for people to replace the oil demand creating things that can go away like cars, ships, heaters, aeroplanes, generators etc. And general inertia of change. Think more recently how long people held onto blackberries after the glass front smartphone took off. Few would now argue the merits of the keyboard over the full screen (not trying to trigger those of you left!) but a fair chunk held to the traditional view for many years. The same will be for the above machines. From this the timeline seems reasonable for me.
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  If the changeover relied on consumer purchases to replace the fleet, I would agree. But I don't think it does. If (when?) you can hail a self-driving cab for a lower per-mile fee than the cost of gas+insurance+car payment, Uber (Tesla?) can (will?) put electrics on the street as fast as they can be financed (manufactured?). People will let their vehicles rust if it's cheaper to take a cab. No major consumer purchases required, just cultural diffusion at the speed of super bowl ads.
Pxtl 10y ago
I'm suspicious that we won't have a Lithium crunch as price approaches parity. The global demand for cars means a lot of Lithium.
- Torkel 10y ago
  This is an interesting topic - I've read some good articles on it. It turns out that lithium ion batteries contains only quite little lithium. 1-2% of the weight _and_ value of the battery only. And there are multiple alternative sources of lithium. So actually world battery production will not be constrained by lithium.
mrDmrTmrJ 10y ago
Layman's observations: 1. Those statements are attributed to different organizations (Bloomberg New Energy Finance and World Energy Council respectively) but are quoted in the same article... They maybe be inconsistent! 2. If you consider integrated (or global) oil demand, you can image a world in which they are both true: EVs may become cost competitive with gas in markets w/high gas + car prices (eg Norway) but not in markets with lower prices (for both goods) where EV takes longer to cross a 'tipping point', delaying the global oil demand "peak" to a later date. There is no one homogeneous "global market" but a bunch of different local markets w/different cross-over dates. (I suspect the 1st article is talked about market for certain products - but not global.) 3. Oil use will also keep growing even as the % of EVs sold starts to increase - b/c of other uses (e.g. trains/heating etc.) that are linked to growing population/gdp.

by Torkel 10y ago

the8472 10y ago

There is inertia in the market. The existing fleet needs to be replaced. So even if EVs were equally affordable today it would still take years for them to reach a high market penetration. And some ICE cars would also be sold in non-negligible amounts if those cars merely reached parity. You actually want them to be more affordable than the competition.

Torkel 10y ago
I guess that's the reasoning... But factor in cheaper EV cost of driving, and posit: taxis, delivery vehicles - changes fast to cheapest (EV) Private and corporate leases - 2-3 years between replacements. Will move to cheapest option (EV) How much of total driving is made in these categories and how much is "long tail" of private driving in old cars? S curve I say.

Gustomaximus 10y ago

6 years takes us to 2022. That gives 8+ years for people to replace the oil demand creating things that can go away like cars, ships, heaters, aeroplanes, generators etc. And general inertia of change. Think more recently how long people held onto blackberries after the glass front smartphone took off. Few would now argue the merits of the keyboard over the full screen (not trying to trigger those of you left!) but a fair chunk held to the traditional view for many years. The same will be for the above machines. From this the timeline seems reasonable for me.

erikpukinskis 10y ago
If the changeover relied on consumer purchases to replace the fleet, I would agree. But I don't think it does. If (when?) you can hail a self-driving cab for a lower per-mile fee than the cost of gas+insurance+car payment, Uber (Tesla?) can (will?) put electrics on the street as fast as they can be financed (manufactured?). People will let their vehicles rust if it's cheaper to take a cab. No major consumer purchases required, just cultural diffusion at the speed of super bowl ads.

Pxtl 10y ago

I'm suspicious that we won't have a Lithium crunch as price approaches parity. The global demand for cars means a lot of Lithium.

Torkel 10y ago
This is an interesting topic - I've read some good articles on it. It turns out that lithium ion batteries contains only quite little lithium. 1-2% of the weight _and_ value of the battery only. And there are multiple alternative sources of lithium. So actually world battery production will not be constrained by lithium.

mrDmrTmrJ 10y ago

Layman's observations: 1. Those statements are attributed to different organizations (Bloomberg New Energy Finance and World Energy Council respectively) but are quoted in the same article... They maybe be inconsistent! 2. If you consider integrated (or global) oil demand, you can image a world in which they are both true: EVs may become cost competitive with gas in markets w/high gas + car prices (eg Norway) but not in markets with lower prices (for both goods) where EV takes longer to cross a 'tipping point', delaying the global oil demand "peak" to a later date. There is no one homogeneous "global market" but a bunch of different local markets w/different cross-over dates. (I suspect the 1st article is talked about market for certain products - but not global.) 3. Oil use will also keep growing even as the % of EVs sold starts to increase - b/c of other uses (e.g. trains/heating etc.) that are linked to growing population/gdp.