One consideration I'd like to point out is how the audience changed over time. I'm not saying anything like "HN is getting worse every year", but rather that i

One consideration I'd like to point out is how the audience changed over time. I'm not saying anything like "HN is getting worse every year", but rather that it started at a startup accelerator, before startup accelerators were popular and at a time when startups weren't as popular as they are now. The crowd was more insiders at the beginning, and insiders may have more insight into what will / won't succeed from their experience. Another point, and I wish I had data but this is purely anecdotal, is that it seems like the side project --> startup transition is happening less. People are content making small side projects, doing hackathons, etc but not making that business their life (upsides and downsides to this).