I don't get it Taleb doesn't seem to be talking about 538s actual prediction, the polls plus model on the site, he's talking about swings from 50% to 20% 538 h

I don't get it Taleb doesn't seem to be talking about 538s actual prediction, the polls plus model on the site, he's talking about swings from 50% to 20% 538 has not swung that hard at all