4 ms·

> He's probably making the same mistake that I did for a long time, which is to continue to chuckle under my breath at machine learning as if it were still the

> He's probably making the same mistake that I did for a long time, which is to continue to chuckle under my breath at machine learning as if it were still the 1980s or 1990s. Anyone could come up with a similar list of technological advances that were forecasted and either realized extremely late or not at all. Flying cars had been a decade away for the last 60 years. AGI was a decade away in the 1950's, 70's, and 90's, and it's a decade away today too.

CamperBob2 10y ago
And if Google had already put two million miles on flying cars in major metro areas, I think I'd sit up and start paying attention to flying cars, too. Unfortunately it's impractical to maintain a minority viewpoint in a conversation on this subject. HN imposes aggressive rate limits after a few downmods. People on HN regularly use downvotes to express disagreement, and they reeeeeeeeallly like their trains. So although I find the topic interesting, I probably won't be able to respond further in this thread.
- saosebastiao 10y ago
  If google didn't use idealized conditions with isolated legal jurisdictions, perfect weather, and engineers ready to intervene at a moments notice, maybe their 2 million miles would be worth talking about. All they've proven so far is that they can drive really well when they don't have to do anything even remotely difficult. I don't know about you, but personally I don't think that Billy Madison acing kindergarten can be taken as a sign of a PhD looming around the corner.
  - CamperBob2 10y ago
    Athletic Department on line 2. Coach says to put those goalposts right back where you found them, or there'll be trouble.
    - saosebastiao 10y ago
      It appears you need to learn what it means to move a goalpost.
      - CamperBob2 10y ago
        "Yeah, well, people keep saying we'll have flying cars in 10 more years, too." "BigCorp, Inc. has been actively developing flying cars. They've logged around two million miles so far." "Yeah, well, those flying cars don't count, because they aren't perfect." Sounds like an excellent reason to spend thirty billion dollars on trains.
        saosebastiao 10y ago
        They don't count. They aren't even close to good enough to replace human drivers yet, let alone optimize traffic enough to make trains obsolete. And the fact that there is some very solid physics evidence that they won't ever be able to make trains obsolete seems like a perfect reason to invest in them. But sure, lets not invest in big things that we really need now and in the future because AGI is only 10 years away and it will solve all of our problems this time for sure.
        CamperBob2 10y ago
        The funny thing is, you may end up losing both the original argument and the one based on the straw man we've been batting back and forth: https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/09/googles-larry-page-is-secretly-developing-a-flying-car/ https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/09/googles-larry-page-is-se... I had never heard of that before I saw a reference to it in the Seattle Times a few minutes ago. Believe me, there is nothing in "physics" that says that fixed-rail tracks are optimal for anything except transferring people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be, and for transferring large sums of tax money from one set of pockets to another. But sure, lets not invest in big things that we really need now and in the future because AGI is only 10 years away and it will solve all of our problems this time for sure. The best time to start building a good light-rail infrastructure was 30 years ago. Not much question about that. The worst time is now.

CamperBob2 10y ago

And if Google had already put two million miles on flying cars in major metro areas, I think I'd sit up and start paying attention to flying cars, too. Unfortunately it's impractical to maintain a minority viewpoint in a conversation on this subject. HN imposes aggressive rate limits after a few downmods. People on HN regularly use downvotes to express disagreement, and they reeeeeeeeallly like their trains. So although I find the topic interesting, I probably won't be able to respond further in this thread.

saosebastiao 10y ago
If google didn't use idealized conditions with isolated legal jurisdictions, perfect weather, and engineers ready to intervene at a moments notice, maybe their 2 million miles would be worth talking about. All they've proven so far is that they can drive really well when they don't have to do anything even remotely difficult. I don't know about you, but personally I don't think that Billy Madison acing kindergarten can be taken as a sign of a PhD looming around the corner.
- CamperBob2 10y ago
  Athletic Department on line 2. Coach says to put those goalposts right back where you found them, or there'll be trouble.
  - saosebastiao 10y ago
    It appears you need to learn what it means to move a goalpost.
    - CamperBob2 10y ago
      "Yeah, well, people keep saying we'll have flying cars in 10 more years, too." "BigCorp, Inc. has been actively developing flying cars. They've logged around two million miles so far." "Yeah, well, those flying cars don't count, because they aren't perfect." Sounds like an excellent reason to spend thirty billion dollars on trains.
      - saosebastiao 10y ago
        They don't count. They aren't even close to good enough to replace human drivers yet, let alone optimize traffic enough to make trains obsolete. And the fact that there is some very solid physics evidence that they won't ever be able to make trains obsolete seems like a perfect reason to invest in them. But sure, lets not invest in big things that we really need now and in the future because AGI is only 10 years away and it will solve all of our problems this time for sure.
        CamperBob2 10y ago
        The funny thing is, you may end up losing both the original argument and the one based on the straw man we've been batting back and forth: https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/09/googles-larry-page-is-secretly-developing-a-flying-car/ https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/09/googles-larry-page-is-se... I had never heard of that before I saw a reference to it in the Seattle Times a few minutes ago. Believe me, there is nothing in "physics" that says that fixed-rail tracks are optimal for anything except transferring people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be, and for transferring large sums of tax money from one set of pockets to another. But sure, lets not invest in big things that we really need now and in the future because AGI is only 10 years away and it will solve all of our problems this time for sure. The best time to start building a good light-rail infrastructure was 30 years ago. Not much question about that. The worst time is now.