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Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-sol

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the benefit in the form of solutions to problems become smaller and the cost of servicing the additional complexity becomes larger, until the cost exceeds the benefit. Then things break down and society is forced to become a lot simpler.

pantalaimon 10y ago
It scares me a bit that this very much describes the current situation
- jacquesm 10y ago
  It shouldn't overly scare you: It required a complex society to produce someone like Tainter, so it isn't proof of imminent dark ages, merely that to be able to posit a theory like this you'd have to be alive roughly now. Just like the future isn't equally distributed we're now so mobile that you could likely outrun a collapse of your society if you saw it coming. You're going to have to give up some creature comforts though, and possible more than just a few.
M_Grey 10y ago
Mumford had a similar view on the fate of cities. "...the blind forces of urbanization, flowing along the lines of least resistance, show no aptitude for creating an urban and industrial pattern that will be stable, self-sustaining, and self-renewing. On the contrary, as congestion thickens and expansion widens, both the urban and the rural landscape undergo defacement and degradation, while the unprofitable investments in the remedies…serve only to promote more of the blight and disorder they seek to palliate."
gaius 10y ago
It's also that to manage the complexity, individuals become hyper-specialized. So when a crisis comes along, that civilization can't repurpose people quickly enough to cope.
- DonaldFisk 10y ago
  "A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Robert Heinlein
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    It's my favorite Heinlein quote by far and I try to live by it but in the short term there is much to be gained for an individual by specializing, specialists tend to rake in the big bucks, generalists not so much.
  - icebraining 10y ago
    Said by a character who lived to be 2000 years old.
jacquesm 10y ago
A direct representation of this can be found in law. Countries start out with simple laws, then as society gets more complex the laws become substantially more complex as well, to the point where tax codes, private and criminal law are no longer wholly comprehensible by any single individual. It shouldn't be a surprise that societies collapse though, everything has a life-cycle, even stars and the universe as a whole, it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so.
- icebraining 10y ago
  it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so. Would it? In 868, the County of Portucale was created; in 1143 it became independent, with Vimaranes as its capital. Nowadays, Portugal is still around and Guimarães is still an important city, and while it certainly has its problems, I don't think it's in any danger of disappearing. Is it that exceptional?
  - tl 10y ago
    Take Ethernet for example: we've had multiple distinct technologies that used the name, but we always call it ethernet (I suspect that we only avoided calling wi-fi "ethernet" is because wi-fi is shorter). It is much the same for countries, who die and reform in approximately the same geographic location and keep the name to preserve the illusion of continuity. Portugal's history is far from free of such reformations, civil wars, etc...
Spooky23 10y ago
I don't like that theory. Sounds a lot like the current era.

pantalaimon 10y ago

It scares me a bit that this very much describes the current situation

jacquesm 10y ago
It shouldn't overly scare you: It required a complex society to produce someone like Tainter, so it isn't proof of imminent dark ages, merely that to be able to posit a theory like this you'd have to be alive roughly now. Just like the future isn't equally distributed we're now so mobile that you could likely outrun a collapse of your society if you saw it coming. You're going to have to give up some creature comforts though, and possible more than just a few.

M_Grey 10y ago

Mumford had a similar view on the fate of cities. "...the blind forces of urbanization, flowing along the lines of least resistance, show no aptitude for creating an urban and industrial pattern that will be stable, self-sustaining, and self-renewing. On the contrary, as congestion thickens and expansion widens, both the urban and the rural landscape undergo defacement and degradation, while the unprofitable investments in the remedies…serve only to promote more of the blight and disorder they seek to palliate."

gaius 10y ago

It's also that to manage the complexity, individuals become hyper-specialized. So when a crisis comes along, that civilization can't repurpose people quickly enough to cope.

DonaldFisk 10y ago
"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Robert Heinlein
- jacquesm 10y ago
  It's my favorite Heinlein quote by far and I try to live by it but in the short term there is much to be gained for an individual by specializing, specialists tend to rake in the big bucks, generalists not so much.
- icebraining 10y ago
  Said by a character who lived to be 2000 years old.

jacquesm 10y ago

A direct representation of this can be found in law. Countries start out with simple laws, then as society gets more complex the laws become substantially more complex as well, to the point where tax codes, private and criminal law are no longer wholly comprehensible by any single individual. It shouldn't be a surprise that societies collapse though, everything has a life-cycle, even stars and the universe as a whole, it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so.

icebraining 10y ago
it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so. Would it? In 868, the County of Portucale was created; in 1143 it became independent, with Vimaranes as its capital. Nowadays, Portugal is still around and Guimarães is still an important city, and while it certainly has its problems, I don't think it's in any danger of disappearing. Is it that exceptional?
- tl 10y ago
  Take Ethernet for example: we've had multiple distinct technologies that used the name, but we always call it ethernet (I suspect that we only avoided calling wi-fi "ethernet" is because wi-fi is shorter). It is much the same for countries, who die and reform in approximately the same geographic location and keep the name to preserve the illusion of continuity. Portugal's history is far from free of such reformations, civil wars, etc...

Spooky23 10y ago

I don't like that theory. Sounds a lot like the current era.