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I used to think there was going to be a crash, but not anymore. We have just experienced a controlled deflation, probably the first time at least in my lifetim

I used to think there was going to be a crash, but not anymore. We have just experienced a controlled deflation, probably the first time at least in my lifetime. Most/many tech companies got deflated but somehow we avoided a massive crash this time and sensibilities have increased without mass chaos.

sergiosgc 10y ago
It was actually expectable. I read Innovation and Entrepreneurship by Peter Drucker back when we were living the first bubble, and it is amazing how much the dot-com bubble followed previous technology disruption bubbles. The book seriously predates the dot-com bubble. It does not mention it. It's just that it perfectly fitted the events back then, and still does; something that is a hallmark of quality. According to Drucker, a first boom and crash is followed by a more shallow boom and slowdown, and then the tech is absorbed into everyday life and causes no more large market fluctuations.
damonpace 10y ago
Word of Caution: The Dot-Com & Real Estate bubbles happened slowly and then all at once. When a bubble slows down, everyone says we're just going through a correction. The possibility of a complete crash is still there in the next year or so. Especially, since a mega-hit ($10b+ val) hasn't been created in SV in over 5 years. Investors need these mega-hits in order to justify the risks they take and there hasn't been a break-out started since 2010.
- crush_xc 10y ago
  Snapchat?
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Is SnapChat's valuation anywhere near inline with their revenue/profitability (or lack thereof)?
  - damonpace 10y ago
    Great company & example...however not SV & founded July 2011.
  - dredmorbius 10y ago
    Snapchat's value was its disruptive threat to Facebook.
dtnewman 10y ago
Let's put things into perspective. The VC market raised 28 billion dollars last year [1]. Apple's market cap alone often goes up and down by this much on any given month (or even day, occasionally). While this small segment of the financial system gets a lot of press (especially on HN), this is a tiny amount in terms of the overall capital markets. My guess is that if the same kind of bubble were present in the stock or fixed income markets--which are both many many times larger than the VC investment market--there would be much more hysteria. [1] http://nvca.org/pressreleases/venture-capitalists-raise-5-billion-in-fourth-quarter-28-billion-for-year/ http://nvca.org/pressreleases/venture-capitalists-raise-5-bi...

sergiosgc 10y ago

It was actually expectable. I read Innovation and Entrepreneurship by Peter Drucker back when we were living the first bubble, and it is amazing how much the dot-com bubble followed previous technology disruption bubbles. The book seriously predates the dot-com bubble. It does not mention it. It's just that it perfectly fitted the events back then, and still does; something that is a hallmark of quality. According to Drucker, a first boom and crash is followed by a more shallow boom and slowdown, and then the tech is absorbed into everyday life and causes no more large market fluctuations.

damonpace 10y ago

Word of Caution: The Dot-Com & Real Estate bubbles happened slowly and then all at once. When a bubble slows down, everyone says we're just going through a correction. The possibility of a complete crash is still there in the next year or so. Especially, since a mega-hit ($10b+ val) hasn't been created in SV in over 5 years. Investors need these mega-hits in order to justify the risks they take and there hasn't been a break-out started since 2010.

crush_xc 10y ago
Snapchat?
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  Is SnapChat's valuation anywhere near inline with their revenue/profitability (or lack thereof)?
- damonpace 10y ago
  Great company & example...however not SV & founded July 2011.
- dredmorbius 10y ago
  Snapchat's value was its disruptive threat to Facebook.

dtnewman 10y ago

Let's put things into perspective. The VC market raised 28 billion dollars last year [1]. Apple's market cap alone often goes up and down by this much on any given month (or even day, occasionally). While this small segment of the financial system gets a lot of press (especially on HN), this is a tiny amount in terms of the overall capital markets. My guess is that if the same kind of bubble were present in the stock or fixed income markets--which are both many many times larger than the VC investment market--there would be much more hysteria. [1] http://nvca.org/pressreleases/venture-capitalists-raise-5-billion-in-fourth-quarter-28-billion-for-year/ http://nvca.org/pressreleases/venture-capitalists-raise-5-bi...