Interestingly enough, even idealized prediction markets don't produce accurate probability estimates, but generally overweight bad events like collapse of the m

Interestingly enough, even idealized prediction markets don't produce accurate probability estimates, but generally overweight bad events like collapse of the market itself: https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2011/12/16/risk-arbitrage/ https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2011/12/16/risk-arbitrag....