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One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]: * It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from
by joelthelion 10y ago
One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]:
* It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from people who just want to try out prediction markets.
* Contestants don't play for real money. I believe this improves predictions by removing biases due to having real financial stakes in the outcomes.
I also like the fact that it's a real prediction market based on trading and not one of those systems where you have to update your predictions all the time. In a prediction market, you just trade when you see a potential benefit, and the power of the market does the rest.
The only issue I have with it is that the site is so damn slow...
[1] https://hypermind.lumenogic.com/hypermind/app.html#welcome https://hypermind.lumenogic.com/hypermind/app.html#welcome
(Edited the link. Whoever made this site is really completely clueless about web programming...)
- denzil_correa 10y agoThis link gives me an Apache HTTP Server Test page.
- lmm 10y agoIf you're not trading for real money then what are you trading for? Wouldn't people end up taking big risks (lowering the overall accurancy) if what they're buying/selling isn't actually worth anything?
- chillydawg 10y agoWithout real money, it's useless imo. At least with something like betfair, one vote = £1 so you only vote big when you know something, which moves the market and incorporates your opinion the appropriate amount.
- joelthelion 10y agoQuite the contrary, actually. Real money markets give way too much importance to clueless gamblers. Also experience shows that the prospect of losing your rank is a sufficient deterrent to keep people from making large dubious bets.