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One place I'd love to try prediction markets is with product changes undergoing A/B tests. A product manager could submit an experiment and people at the compa

by hardtke 10y ago

One place I'd love to try prediction markets is with product changes undergoing A/B tests. A product manager could submit an experiment and people at the company could bet on what the product change will do to engagement/revenue/growth metrics. This framework could eventually be used to weed out product changes before they are built. It would be particularly useful when the product change is driven by the leadership and most of the rank and file think the direction is wrong.

n00b101 10y ago
Enterprise Prediction Markets have been a thing for a long time. There are existing enterprise software vendors [1], it is known that Google has an internal prediction market [2], and there is a wealth of academic literature on corporate prediction markets [3] [1] https://www.crowdworx.com/prediction-market-software-consulting-companies/ https://www.crowdworx.com/prediction-market-software-consult... [2] https://www.quora.com/What-does-Google-use-prediction-markets-for-internally https://www.quora.com/What-does-Google-use-prediction-market... [3] http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/corporate-prediction-markets-work-well.html http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/cor...
- jedc 10y ago
  Google had an internal prediction market. It hasn't operated for many, many years.
tpeo 10y ago
This doesn't seem useful. Innovation has an always unpredictable character, in the sense that it might occur in unlikely places. Unforeseen consequences might make workers no better than chance in predicting the outcome of the majority of product changes. On the other hand, if something which is obviously wrong is being pushed by management despite all evidence and opposition, in all likelihood, that's because neither one has any bearing on the it's advocates ability to push it nor it's willingness to push it. It might be less an issue of right or wrong, and more one of shameless corporate politics. I'll look a Taleb reference for the innovation bit.

by hardtke 10y ago

n00b101 10y ago

Enterprise Prediction Markets have been a thing for a long time. There are existing enterprise software vendors [1], it is known that Google has an internal prediction market [2], and there is a wealth of academic literature on corporate prediction markets [3] [1] https://www.crowdworx.com/prediction-market-software-consulting-companies/ https://www.crowdworx.com/prediction-market-software-consult... [2] https://www.quora.com/What-does-Google-use-prediction-markets-for-internally https://www.quora.com/What-does-Google-use-prediction-market... [3] http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/corporate-prediction-markets-work-well.html http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/cor...

jedc 10y ago
Google had an internal prediction market. It hasn't operated for many, many years.

tpeo 10y ago

This doesn't seem useful. Innovation has an always unpredictable character, in the sense that it might occur in unlikely places. Unforeseen consequences might make workers no better than chance in predicting the outcome of the majority of product changes. On the other hand, if something which is obviously wrong is being pushed by management despite all evidence and opposition, in all likelihood, that's because neither one has any bearing on the it's advocates ability to push it nor it's willingness to push it. It might be less an issue of right or wrong, and more one of shameless corporate politics. I'll look a Taleb reference for the innovation bit.