Well I agree that the specific predictions are weird. Hanson spends a whole chapter at the begging trying to justify them. The main point is that it doesn't mat

Well I agree that the specific predictions are weird. Hanson spends a whole chapter at the begging trying to justify them. The main point is that it doesn't matter if all the details are right. Humans are better at seeing a specific image of what a possible future might look at, than trying to sample from the entire probability distribution of possible futures. It's less like trying to forecast the weather in a backyard. And more like painting a picture of that backyard in 20 years. When all the trees and plants grown up, and imagining what they will look like. Imagining what the needs of that older family will be that they have aged. Maybe their kids will grow up and the playground equipment will be gone. Or they will have a ramp instead of steps to accommodate a wheelchair.