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No, the second chance is supposed to be better than a 0.5 and I could outline the argument, but I don't trust it.
by posterboy 10y ago
No, the second chance is supposed to be better than a 0.5 and I could outline the argument, but I don't trust it.
- retsibsi 10y agoThe key is that Monty Hall is guaranteed to show you a losing door. If that weren't the case -- if he just picked one of the remaining doors at random -- then the fact that he happened to pick a losing door would count as evidence that your door is a winner, leaving you with a 50/50 shot. I think that's one source of intuitive discomfort, and even of lasting confusion if the scenario isn't specified precisely.