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The Monty Hall problem is about being given two sets of information. First they give you a 33% shot, then they give you a 50% shot. Take the 50% shot.
by novembermike 10y ago
The Monty Hall problem is about being given two sets of information. First they give you a 33% shot, then they give you a 50% shot. Take the 50% shot.
- posterboy 10y agoNo, the second chance is supposed to be better than a 0.5 and I could outline the argument, but I don't trust it.
- retsibsi 10y agoThe key is that Monty Hall is guaranteed to show you a losing door. If that weren't the case -- if he just picked one of the remaining doors at random -- then the fact that he happened to pick a losing door would count as evidence that your door is a winner, leaving you with a 50/50 shot. I think that's one source of intuitive discomfort, and even of lasting confusion if the scenario isn't specified precisely.
- hilop 10y agoThat's not true. It's a 66% shot. It has to be, because there only two options, and (we agree) one of them was 33%, so they other must 66%.
- hilop 10y agoThat's not true. It's a 66% shot. It has to be, because there only two options, and (we agree) one of them was 33%, so they other must 66%.