4 ms·
> below replacement in some places And in other places, the total fertility rate is over 8x. > Global population is expected to peak then decline ORLY, "expe
by reflexive 10y ago
> below replacement in some places
And in other places, the total fertility rate is over 8x.
> Global population is expected to peak then decline
ORLY, "expected" by whom? Is it the same people who expected mosquitoes to be extinct by the end of the 20th century because people don't ride horses anymore?
- gertef 10y agoWhat's this about horses? Google isn't finding relevant links (except that mosquitos and horses are correlated)
- reflexive 10y agoAs I recall, the argument was that the main breeding grounds for mosquitoes were horse stables and swamps. The horses would be replaced by cars, and the swamps would be drained to make room for highways and factories, thus leading to the mosquito's extinction.
- clock_tower 10y agoExpected by the UN, as the demographic transition spreads. See the following as a starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_dearth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_dearth
- reflexive 10y agoYou're a little out of date. "new analysis suggests that the world’s population will keep rising through 2100, and not flatten around 2050 as has been widely assumed". https://www.technologyreview.com/s/530866/un-predicts-new-global-population-boom/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/530866/un-predicts-new-gl... There's a lot of problems in your old analysis, including the fact that sub-replacement fertility trends that affected Europe and East Asia aren't catching on in other parts of the world.