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There's only one type of vote fraud that voter ID laws have a hope of defending against, which is in-person voter impersonation. In-person voter impersonation

by amalcon 10y ago

There's only one type of vote fraud that voter ID laws have a hope of defending against, which is in-person voter impersonation. In-person voter impersonation statistically doesn't happen in the U.S, and there's a reason. In-person voter impersonation is just about the least efficient and highest risk way to manipulate an election. You would need to physically go to a polling station, impersonate a registered voter, hope nobody recognizes you as not that person, cast a vote, hope that person doesn't actually show up later to vote, and then travel to another polling station to do it again. And also hope nobody just notices that you voted at both places, a real concern in this age of ubiquitous cameras. You have something like 18 hours at most to do this, so with optimistic assumptions, an individual could vote maybe 36 times at a high risk of getting caught. Even something like absentee ballot fraud is more efficient and less risky. However, absentee ballot fraud is still less efficient than gray and even positive/legal uses of your time. Gray methods would mostly include voter suppression in districts that don't favor your outcome. The town I grew up in made national news this last primary for having a massive traffic snarl and long lines around its single polling station, after closing the second one for budgetary reasons. People were giving up after waiting multiple hours to vote. There may not be anything illicit there (certainly nothing provable), but you can see how that might be done "accidentally". Positive and legal methods would mostly include things like voter registration drives, phone work to remind and encourage people to vote, and even physically transporting people to the polls.

jack9 10y ago
I'm really interested in how you came to these conclusions as it seems you have trivialized the basic cognitive ability of the people who might engage in these acts. > In-person voter impersonation is just about the least efficient and highest risk way to manipulate an election. That is incorrect, as it is done in almost every election for the last 2 decades (iirc). I remember multiple stories about democratic fraud from as far back as 1994 (I usually vote democrat). "Hope nobody recognizes you" is not a concern across county lines, much less state lines. Did you even take a moment to read up on how it HAS been done? Republicans are much bigger on the absentee fraud. It's also very effective (and cost effective). Since nothing much has been done in the past 20 years, I don't expect anything to change when you inevitably find people on camera.
- amalcon 10y ago
  Just the first few duckduckgo results of a search for "usa in person voter fraud": http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/sep/19/naacp/-person-voter-fraud-very-rare-phenomenon/ http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/sep/19/naa... http://dailysignal.com/2015/08/11/nearly-300-cases-the-extent-of-voter-fraud-in-america/ http://dailysignal.com/2015/08/11/nearly-300-cases-the-exten... http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/2588/how-many-known-cases-of-in-person-voter-fraud-could-have-been-prevented-by-voter http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/2588/how-many-kn... So, one source out of the first random 3 that duckduckgo gave me considers in-person voter impersonation to be a substantial problem. It cites a Heritage Foundation report containing "Nearly 300" cases. This is less than the 537 votes by which Bush defeated Gore in Florida, and spread across 50 states and more than 30 years, but it's possible that each of these instances could include many fraudulent votes. The report is linked, though, so we can just break it down. The instances citing impersonation are: Shasta Nicole Crayton, Alabama, 2004, impersonated one person and was caught by one of the means I specifically listed Eugene W. Victor, New Mexico, 2015, impersonated one person and turned himself in Gary Copeland, Tennessee, 2011, impersonated two people and was caught by voter ID laws. Credit where it's due, there is some positive effect here. Mary Lou Simpson, Tennessee, 2005, impersonated one person, unspecified how she was caught. Hazel Brionne Woodward, Texas, 2015, got her son to impersonate her husband and was caught when the husband showed up to vote. Reyna Almanza, Texas, 2011, got her son to impersonate his brother, who was incarcerated. Unspecified if she was caught just by someone noticing that or by other means. Doris McFarland, Washington, 2005, cast her husband's absentee ballot. This appears to me to be mis-characterized absentee fraud, but I'll count it anyway. Robert Victor Holmgren, Washington, 2005, "cast a ballot for his recently deceased wife". That seems unlikely to have been done in person, but I'll count it anyway. That's nine votes across more than a decade and five states. There are a number of instances of duplicate voting, which is where you vote as yourself in multiple jurisdictions, and registration fraud, where you register as multiple individuals. Voter ID laws plausibly prevent those, but it seems more sensible, efficient, and effective to take measures to protect the integrity of the voter registry instead of verifying identity at the polls. After all, if one wants to do this in a state with voter ID laws, all one needs to do is use absentee ballots. You're right that absentee fraud is relatively effective (which is why all parties do it). It's just less cost effective before a certain point than making sure legitimate votes for you are cast, and legitimate votes for your opponent are not. > Since nothing much has been done in the past 20 years, I don't expect anything to change when you inevitably find people on camera. You can arrest those people and try them for election fraud, as has happened in the past.

by amalcon 10y ago

jack9 10y ago

I'm really interested in how you came to these conclusions as it seems you have trivialized the basic cognitive ability of the people who might engage in these acts. > In-person voter impersonation is just about the least efficient and highest risk way to manipulate an election. That is incorrect, as it is done in almost every election for the last 2 decades (iirc). I remember multiple stories about democratic fraud from as far back as 1994 (I usually vote democrat). "Hope nobody recognizes you" is not a concern across county lines, much less state lines. Did you even take a moment to read up on how it HAS been done? Republicans are much bigger on the absentee fraud. It's also very effective (and cost effective). Since nothing much has been done in the past 20 years, I don't expect anything to change when you inevitably find people on camera.

amalcon 10y ago
Just the first few duckduckgo results of a search for "usa in person voter fraud": http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/sep/19/naacp/-person-voter-fraud-very-rare-phenomenon/ http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/sep/19/naa... http://dailysignal.com/2015/08/11/nearly-300-cases-the-extent-of-voter-fraud-in-america/ http://dailysignal.com/2015/08/11/nearly-300-cases-the-exten... http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/2588/how-many-known-cases-of-in-person-voter-fraud-could-have-been-prevented-by-voter http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/2588/how-many-kn... So, one source out of the first random 3 that duckduckgo gave me considers in-person voter impersonation to be a substantial problem. It cites a Heritage Foundation report containing "Nearly 300" cases. This is less than the 537 votes by which Bush defeated Gore in Florida, and spread across 50 states and more than 30 years, but it's possible that each of these instances could include many fraudulent votes. The report is linked, though, so we can just break it down. The instances citing impersonation are: Shasta Nicole Crayton, Alabama, 2004, impersonated one person and was caught by one of the means I specifically listed Eugene W. Victor, New Mexico, 2015, impersonated one person and turned himself in Gary Copeland, Tennessee, 2011, impersonated two people and was caught by voter ID laws. Credit where it's due, there is some positive effect here. Mary Lou Simpson, Tennessee, 2005, impersonated one person, unspecified how she was caught. Hazel Brionne Woodward, Texas, 2015, got her son to impersonate her husband and was caught when the husband showed up to vote. Reyna Almanza, Texas, 2011, got her son to impersonate his brother, who was incarcerated. Unspecified if she was caught just by someone noticing that or by other means. Doris McFarland, Washington, 2005, cast her husband's absentee ballot. This appears to me to be mis-characterized absentee fraud, but I'll count it anyway. Robert Victor Holmgren, Washington, 2005, "cast a ballot for his recently deceased wife". That seems unlikely to have been done in person, but I'll count it anyway. That's nine votes across more than a decade and five states. There are a number of instances of duplicate voting, which is where you vote as yourself in multiple jurisdictions, and registration fraud, where you register as multiple individuals. Voter ID laws plausibly prevent those, but it seems more sensible, efficient, and effective to take measures to protect the integrity of the voter registry instead of verifying identity at the polls. After all, if one wants to do this in a state with voter ID laws, all one needs to do is use absentee ballots. You're right that absentee fraud is relatively effective (which is why all parties do it). It's just less cost effective before a certain point than making sure legitimate votes for you are cast, and legitimate votes for your opponent are not. > Since nothing much has been done in the past 20 years, I don't expect anything to change when you inevitably find people on camera. You can arrest those people and try them for election fraud, as has happened in the past.