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Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now wit
by cmdrfred 10y ago
Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.
- dragonwriter 10y agoRelative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)