4 ms·

She's at 41%[0] (38% among only registered voters, Trump is at 37% by the same metric) and falling favorably wise, Bush was also at 41%[1] when he was inaugurat

She's at 41%[0] (38% among only registered voters, Trump is at 37% by the same metric) and falling favorably wise, Bush was also at 41%[1] when he was inaugurated but around 47% - 48% at this point in the election. Given her probable "private position" on TPP and other anti-worker policies that number will be lower than Bush (his personal worst in office is 29%), and in half the time. Democrats should hope that she steps down or is impeached, as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. [0]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-record-number-of-americans-now-dislike-hillary-clinton/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-... [1]http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm

AnimalMuppet 10y ago
> ... as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. It should be impossible for her to win re-election in four years. But it also should have been impossible for her to win this year. All the Republicans had to do was run somebody moderately competent. But...
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    Relative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)
dragonwriter 10y ago
AFAIK, there's not much evidence of a particular link between favorability (as opposed to approval) and reelection prospects, and even less for pre-election favorability and reelection prospects.
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  I don't know of a study, but if 70%+ of the country dislikes you it will be difficult to get elected.
  - white-flame 10y ago
    Trump is basically preventing her from losing.
toyg 10y ago
> it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. 4 years is a long time in politics. GWB was struggling in early 2001: his "compassionate conservatism" platform had been revealed for the religious fundamentalist welfare-slaughter program it always was, he was under fire for making backroom deals with energy-industry cronies and other serial polluters, was clearly stuttering in public appearances, and half the country thought he was just a rich brat who had cheated his way into the White House. Then 9/11 happened and GWB became Fearless Leader. For a few years his power had literally no boundaries. He walked into re-election. Hillary will need a bit of luck, but nothing that cannot be solved with a well-timed spat with North Korea or equivalent. EDIT: uh, why the downvotes?
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  The ground zero speech[0] is why I believe that happened, while simple it stands as one of the most memorable in American history (This is coming from a kid who wore his "fuck bush" t-shirt to school). I don't think Hillary can pull something like that off. [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE
  - toyg 10y ago
    Maybe, maybe not. The way the media works these days, you need very little to weave a narrative - a tear, a hug, a sign of rage, a simple speech in the right place... She's not a crowd-pleaser the way GWB or her husband were, but I'm sure she can muster a decent "Joan of Arc" in the right circumstances.

AnimalMuppet 10y ago

> ... as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. It should be impossible for her to win re-election in four years. But it also should have been impossible for her to win this year. All the Republicans had to do was run somebody moderately competent. But...

cmdrfred 10y ago
Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  Relative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)

dragonwriter 10y ago

AFAIK, there's not much evidence of a particular link between favorability (as opposed to approval) and reelection prospects, and even less for pre-election favorability and reelection prospects.

cmdrfred 10y ago
I don't know of a study, but if 70%+ of the country dislikes you it will be difficult to get elected.
- white-flame 10y ago
  Trump is basically preventing her from losing.

toyg 10y ago

> it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. 4 years is a long time in politics. GWB was struggling in early 2001: his "compassionate conservatism" platform had been revealed for the religious fundamentalist welfare-slaughter program it always was, he was under fire for making backroom deals with energy-industry cronies and other serial polluters, was clearly stuttering in public appearances, and half the country thought he was just a rich brat who had cheated his way into the White House. Then 9/11 happened and GWB became Fearless Leader. For a few years his power had literally no boundaries. He walked into re-election. Hillary will need a bit of luck, but nothing that cannot be solved with a well-timed spat with North Korea or equivalent. EDIT: uh, why the downvotes?

cmdrfred 10y ago
The ground zero speech[0] is why I believe that happened, while simple it stands as one of the most memorable in American history (This is coming from a kid who wore his "fuck bush" t-shirt to school). I don't think Hillary can pull something like that off. [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE
- toyg 10y ago
  Maybe, maybe not. The way the media works these days, you need very little to weave a narrative - a tear, a hug, a sign of rage, a simple speech in the right place... She's not a crowd-pleaser the way GWB or her husband were, but I'm sure she can muster a decent "Joan of Arc" in the right circumstances.