4 ms·

Best case scenario for her: she's elected as the least-liked president in history.

by 464192002d7fe1c 10y ago

CalChris 10y ago
Least liked would and will be George W Bush. He lost the popular vote in 2000 by more than 500,000 votes. He exited office with a 30% approval rating.
- 464192002d7fe1c 10y ago
  approval rating is different than favorability, which was what I meant (I should have used the more specific term). In any event, if she's elected, she will have 4 years to drop below 30%, its an easy goal.
  - cmdrfred 10y ago
    She's at 41%[0] (38% among only registered voters, Trump is at 37% by the same metric) and falling favorably wise, Bush was also at 41%[1] when he was inaugurated but around 47% - 48% at this point in the election. Given her probable "private position" on TPP and other anti-worker policies that number will be lower than Bush (his personal worst in office is 29%), and in half the time. Democrats should hope that she steps down or is impeached, as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. [0]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-record-number-of-americans-now-dislike-hillary-clinton/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-... [1]http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm
    - AnimalMuppet 10y ago
      > ... as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. It should be impossible for her to win re-election in four years. But it also should have been impossible for her to win this year. All the Republicans had to do was run somebody moderately competent. But...
      - cmdrfred 10y ago
        Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.
        dragonwriter 10y ago
        Relative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      AFAIK, there's not much evidence of a particular link between favorability (as opposed to approval) and reelection prospects, and even less for pre-election favorability and reelection prospects.
      - cmdrfred 10y ago
        I don't know of a study, but if 70%+ of the country dislikes you it will be difficult to get elected.
        white-flame 10y ago
        Trump is basically preventing her from losing.
    - toyg 10y ago
      > it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. 4 years is a long time in politics. GWB was struggling in early 2001: his "compassionate conservatism" platform had been revealed for the religious fundamentalist welfare-slaughter program it always was, he was under fire for making backroom deals with energy-industry cronies and other serial polluters, was clearly stuttering in public appearances, and half the country thought he was just a rich brat who had cheated his way into the White House. Then 9/11 happened and GWB became Fearless Leader. For a few years his power had literally no boundaries. He walked into re-election. Hillary will need a bit of luck, but nothing that cannot be solved with a well-timed spat with North Korea or equivalent. EDIT: uh, why the downvotes?
      - cmdrfred 10y ago
        The ground zero speech[0] is why I believe that happened, while simple it stands as one of the most memorable in American history (This is coming from a kid who wore his "fuck bush" t-shirt to school). I don't think Hillary can pull something like that off. [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE
        toyg 10y ago
        Maybe, maybe not. The way the media works these days, you need very little to weave a narrative - a tear, a hug, a sign of rage, a simple speech in the right place... She's not a crowd-pleaser the way GWB or her husband were, but I'm sure she can muster a decent "Joan of Arc" in the right circumstances.
ktRolster 10y ago
Andrew Johnson has her beat for that honor.
- 464192002d7fe1c 10y ago
  Hard to compare to someone who was never elected and served prior to the advent of modern communication or even polling to determine things like that (hardly implying that I consider modern polling authoritative).
  - mikestew 10y ago
    So, then, how modern do our choices for comparison have to be? Or are you willing to keep producing eliminating qualities so that you can continue with your narrative about Clinton?
whamlastxmas 10y ago
And gets a full pardon "so we can stop being distracted by politics and get to the real work".

Best case scenario for her: she's elected as the least-liked president in history.

Least liked would and will be George W Bush. He lost the popular vote in 2000 by more than 500,000 votes. He exited office with a 30% approval rating.

464192002d7fe1c 10y ago
approval rating is different than favorability, which was what I meant (I should have used the more specific term). In any event, if she's elected, she will have 4 years to drop below 30%, its an easy goal.
- cmdrfred 10y ago
  She's at 41%[0] (38% among only registered voters, Trump is at 37% by the same metric) and falling favorably wise, Bush was also at 41%[1] when he was inaugurated but around 47% - 48% at this point in the election. Given her probable "private position" on TPP and other anti-worker policies that number will be lower than Bush (his personal worst in office is 29%), and in half the time. Democrats should hope that she steps down or is impeached, as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. [0]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-record-number-of-americans-now-dislike-hillary-clinton/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-... [1]http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm
  - AnimalMuppet 10y ago
    > ... as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. It should be impossible for her to win re-election in four years. But it also should have been impossible for her to win this year. All the Republicans had to do was run somebody moderately competent. But...
    - cmdrfred 10y ago
      Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        Relative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    AFAIK, there's not much evidence of a particular link between favorability (as opposed to approval) and reelection prospects, and even less for pre-election favorability and reelection prospects.
    - cmdrfred 10y ago
      I don't know of a study, but if 70%+ of the country dislikes you it will be difficult to get elected.
      - white-flame 10y ago
        Trump is basically preventing her from losing.
  - toyg 10y ago
    > it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent. 4 years is a long time in politics. GWB was struggling in early 2001: his "compassionate conservatism" platform had been revealed for the religious fundamentalist welfare-slaughter program it always was, he was under fire for making backroom deals with energy-industry cronies and other serial polluters, was clearly stuttering in public appearances, and half the country thought he was just a rich brat who had cheated his way into the White House. Then 9/11 happened and GWB became Fearless Leader. For a few years his power had literally no boundaries. He walked into re-election. Hillary will need a bit of luck, but nothing that cannot be solved with a well-timed spat with North Korea or equivalent. EDIT: uh, why the downvotes?
    - cmdrfred 10y ago
      The ground zero speech[0] is why I believe that happened, while simple it stands as one of the most memorable in American history (This is coming from a kid who wore his "fuck bush" t-shirt to school). I don't think Hillary can pull something like that off. [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE
      - toyg 10y ago
        Maybe, maybe not. The way the media works these days, you need very little to weave a narrative - a tear, a hug, a sign of rage, a simple speech in the right place... She's not a crowd-pleaser the way GWB or her husband were, but I'm sure she can muster a decent "Joan of Arc" in the right circumstances.

ktRolster 10y ago

Andrew Johnson has her beat for that honor.

464192002d7fe1c 10y ago
Hard to compare to someone who was never elected and served prior to the advent of modern communication or even polling to determine things like that (hardly implying that I consider modern polling authoritative).
- mikestew 10y ago
  So, then, how modern do our choices for comparison have to be? Or are you willing to keep producing eliminating qualities so that you can continue with your narrative about Clinton?

whamlastxmas 10y ago

And gets a full pardon "so we can stop being distracted by politics and get to the real work".