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The problem is that the conspiracy theories are becoming more and more believable. As more and more have come true (Snowden, Iraq WMD, ...), people have less an

by tomp 10y ago

The problem is that the conspiracy theories are becoming more and more believable. As more and more have come true (Snowden, Iraq WMD, ...), people have less and less reason to doubt them.

aljones 10y ago
Is it actually true that more are correct now than in the past?
- Alex3917 10y ago
  The field of Organizational Behavior has done research on 'grapevine communication', and found that most rumors are true. And this was decades ago: http://tqr.nova.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/singh3.pdf http://tqr.nova.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/singh3.pdf What's changed is that we have more leaked documents, more ability for whistleblowers to mass broadcast anonymously, and more tools for immediately uncovering discrepancies in people's stories. So the rumor mill probably is a little more accurate than in prior eras, but it was probably already reasonably reliable even before the advent of WikiLeaks or whatever. The other difference is that people now have a lot more incentive to turn to the rumor mill (e.g. r/dncleaks, r/wikileaks, r/the_donald) since the mainstream media has been blatantly ignoring a lot of this stuff, and with the advent of Facebook they can spread whatever they find a lot faster.
  - mark_l_watson 10y ago
    +1 for the criticism of mainstream media - it is awful and apparently getting worse quickly. I sometimes have to turn to foreign news like Russia Times (RT), Al Jazeera, and the Israeli Haaretz news (and news from many other countries) to see news stories that are effectively blocked out in the USA. I do look with appropriate scepticism at all foreign and domestic news sources, but when major stories are not covered in domestic news sources there is no choice but to look around the web. It drives me a little crazy when friends who watch MSNBC, Fox News, CNN, etc. think that they are getting a full and accurate picture of world events.
- fmihaila 10y ago
  More were correct in the past than was believed at the time.
- AnimalMuppet 10y ago
  More are provably correct than in the past. Um, that is, numerically more are provably correct, not more as a percent. There are far more conspiracy theories (of which I am aware) than there were in the past. I don't know that the fraction that are provably correct is any higher now.
freshhawk 10y ago
I think one factor is that the standard response to allegations of large scale corruption was "ha! As if the incompetent government could keep a secret that big you conspiracy theorist". That argument practically disappeared from public discourse in a crazy short time span. To me it seemed like the Snowden/NSA stuff was the nail in the coffin for that one.
- mikeash 10y ago
  Which is weird, because massive NSA surveillance had been fairly well known for years. Snowden exposed a lot of interesting details and got it into the public consciousness, but it was only a surprise to people who hadn't been paying attention before. (To be fair, I'm not criticizing such people. They had no reason to pay attention before.) I don't get the grandparent's Iraq WMD example. That was obvious BS at the time it was being sold to the public. That's an example of propaganda and manipulation of public opinion, but not a conspiracy.
  - freshhawk 10y ago
    I'm with you for both those examples, they were utterly unsurprising to me. But for most people, these were conspiracy theories. Because the government said they were not true. In the press, in congressional hearings, everywhere. That's enough for most people. In all honesty though, I've learned I can't use my intuition to predict what people will believe or not. I mean, the Iraq WMD and 9/11 connection stuff was so obviously BS that it was like an absurdist comedy routine. But 70% of Americans believed Saddam was connected to 9/11. And I don't know what the WMD story success rate was but it had to be higher right?
    - mikeash 10y ago
      So conspiracy theories are getting more traction, not because the government is up to more shady stuff, but because people are paying less attention? I could buy that.
      - jospoortvliet 10y ago

by tomp 10y ago

The problem is that the conspiracy theories are becoming more and more believable. As more and more have come true (Snowden, Iraq WMD, ...), people have less and less reason to doubt them.

aljones 10y ago

Is it actually true that more are correct now than in the past?

Alex3917 10y ago
The field of Organizational Behavior has done research on 'grapevine communication', and found that most rumors are true. And this was decades ago: http://tqr.nova.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/singh3.pdf http://tqr.nova.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/singh3.pdf What's changed is that we have more leaked documents, more ability for whistleblowers to mass broadcast anonymously, and more tools for immediately uncovering discrepancies in people's stories. So the rumor mill probably is a little more accurate than in prior eras, but it was probably already reasonably reliable even before the advent of WikiLeaks or whatever. The other difference is that people now have a lot more incentive to turn to the rumor mill (e.g. r/dncleaks, r/wikileaks, r/the_donald) since the mainstream media has been blatantly ignoring a lot of this stuff, and with the advent of Facebook they can spread whatever they find a lot faster.
- mark_l_watson 10y ago
  +1 for the criticism of mainstream media - it is awful and apparently getting worse quickly. I sometimes have to turn to foreign news like Russia Times (RT), Al Jazeera, and the Israeli Haaretz news (and news from many other countries) to see news stories that are effectively blocked out in the USA. I do look with appropriate scepticism at all foreign and domestic news sources, but when major stories are not covered in domestic news sources there is no choice but to look around the web. It drives me a little crazy when friends who watch MSNBC, Fox News, CNN, etc. think that they are getting a full and accurate picture of world events.
fmihaila 10y ago
More were correct in the past than was believed at the time.
AnimalMuppet 10y ago
More are provably correct than in the past. Um, that is, numerically more are provably correct, not more as a percent. There are far more conspiracy theories (of which I am aware) than there were in the past. I don't know that the fraction that are provably correct is any higher now.

freshhawk 10y ago

I think one factor is that the standard response to allegations of large scale corruption was "ha! As if the incompetent government could keep a secret that big you conspiracy theorist". That argument practically disappeared from public discourse in a crazy short time span. To me it seemed like the Snowden/NSA stuff was the nail in the coffin for that one.

mikeash 10y ago
Which is weird, because massive NSA surveillance had been fairly well known for years. Snowden exposed a lot of interesting details and got it into the public consciousness, but it was only a surprise to people who hadn't been paying attention before. (To be fair, I'm not criticizing such people. They had no reason to pay attention before.) I don't get the grandparent's Iraq WMD example. That was obvious BS at the time it was being sold to the public. That's an example of propaganda and manipulation of public opinion, but not a conspiracy.
- freshhawk 10y ago
  I'm with you for both those examples, they were utterly unsurprising to me. But for most people, these were conspiracy theories. Because the government said they were not true. In the press, in congressional hearings, everywhere. That's enough for most people. In all honesty though, I've learned I can't use my intuition to predict what people will believe or not. I mean, the Iraq WMD and 9/11 connection stuff was so obviously BS that it was like an absurdist comedy routine. But 70% of Americans believed Saddam was connected to 9/11. And I don't know what the WMD story success rate was but it had to be higher right?
  - mikeash 10y ago
    So conspiracy theories are getting more traction, not because the government is up to more shady stuff, but because people are paying less attention? I could buy that.
    - jospoortvliet 10y ago