5 ms·

Finally an article that answers some pressing societal questions: * Can hostfully.com identify suspicious data analysis? (no.) * If given the chance, will Air

by dlss 10y ago

Finally an article that answers some pressing societal questions: * Can hostfully.com identify suspicious data analysis? (no.) * If given the chance, will Airbnb present misleading data for self-serving ends? (yes.) * Will an already self-serving study be given an even more self-serving spin when presented by a sympathetic reporter? (yes.) To understand what I'm talking about, consider the source cited by OP (http://hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/77191/New-Airbnb-data-sheds-light-on-13-global-markets http://hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/77191/New-Airbnb-data-sheds...). Going by that data we might be tempted to say that Airbnb is being out-competed by the hotel industry. However, stagnant growth on the part of AirBnb seems like it would have been widely reported. And yet it hasn't. Googling we find a seemingly contradictory datapoint: Airbnb's revenue is up 89% this year (http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2016/09/01/airbnbs-revenue-soars-compared-to-hotels.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2016/09/01/airb...). How can Airbnb's revenue have almost doubled while still losing market share across the board? Option 1. They didn't lose market share across the board, and instead cherry picked non-representative markets for their 13 region hotel comparison. Option 2. They lost large numbers of low-margin bookings across the board, while gaining (taking market share from hotels) higher margin bookings. [Note this would contradict OP's article.] In both cases, Airbnb's data is misleading.

MaysonL 10y ago
It is interesting, nonetheless, that the past two years have been the best on record for hotels, as far as their occupancy rate is concerned. (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/hotels-occupancy-rate-on-track-to-be_17.html http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/hotels-occupancy-r...)
- sametmax 10y ago
  Except I'm on one of the biggest touristic area in France, and hotels here a loosing customers. We got less tourists than before, and I can see many people using RBNB. In the mean time, some people close to me are talking about being fired from their hotel because of the economy. While I know my situation is not a representative sample, I do travel a lot and observed the same thing in various places, including other countries. I discussed it with other travelers, and they reported the same. So I wouldn't conclude that everything is ok for hotels. The story needs more data.
  - ghaff 10y ago
    US tourist travel to much of Europe was down this summer [1] with the drop attributed to the terrorist attacks. Anecdotally, tourist travel in areas of the Northeast US was up considerably (double digits) this summer. I'm sure there are a number of reasons for this--low gas prices but not especially cheap airfares, the general air travel experience, etc.--but reluctance to visit Europe (in spite of a strong dollar) does seem to be real based on conversations with a number of restaurant owners for example. [1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/terror-attacks-weigh-on-europes-travel-companies-1469372313 http://www.wsj.com/articles/terror-attacks-weigh-on-europes-...
- exclusiv 10y ago
  Good point. We'll see how it shakes out when they aren't having record years. Hotels typically have about a 5 year cycle. Families can get a more memorable experience and usually a more economical one with a home rental. My property has even been getting small corporate retreats. There's a lot of people that have never tried the hospitality sharing economy. Only 6% have [1]. It's kind of intimidating and unknown the first time but once you do it you realize it's pretty awesome. Also - hotels will be hurting when businesses adopt home share credit card rewards. You'll see a shift from business travelers. Many have Marriott rewards cards as an example like they used to have Blackberries. They'll demand a more flexible option which will be a game changer. Example: https://www.americanexpress.com/us/content/airbnb/ https://www.americanexpress.com/us/content/airbnb/ Hotels are definitely worried - they're just not putting that out there because most of the large brands are public franchises. [1] https://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology/publications/assets/pwc-consumer-intelligence-series-the-sharing-economy.pdf https://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology/publications/assets/pwc...
  - ghaff 10y ago
    >You'll see a shift from business travelers We'll see. I'm a frequent business traveler who often prefers smaller and more local when I travel on vacation and, indeed, will often favor "boutique hotels" when I'm on business; I keep an eye on hotel rewards but aren't a slave to them. But, when traveling on business, I really do want a predictable experience, 24 hour desk, etc. I'm not looking for travel experiences from the hotel perspective at all.
    - exclusiv 10y ago
      Yeah predictability is a definite concern. However, many AirBnBs are more convenient in many ways. My place is accessed by touchscreen code and I let visitors check in whenever they want and usually let them check out late at no charge if requested. 50M internet. Killer kitchen, tons of work space, grill, new hot tub. AirBnB is pushing more hosts toward instant book which will make it easier for business travel. They also prioritize hosts that respond quickly because booking has to be easy to convert, especially for last minute bookings and biz travel. It may not be for you, but many on business don't necessarily look for an experience - they just want amenities and features they have at home. Younger people are generally more excited about AirBnB too so that will drive more growth and adoption as they become the traveling warriors. AirBnB and others need not take huge market share from hotels that cater to business travelers to cause them to hurt. Expenses are on the rise for hotels and changes in the minimum wage and labor laws will have a big impact too. The industry pays very little and demands a lot from their employees.
user5994461 10y ago
> How can Airbnb's revenue have almost doubled while still losing market share across the board? Trivial: Because the market size increases. More people are renting hotels/airbnb + more often + for longer durations. For starters, I believe that comparisons shouldn't oppose AirBnb and Hotels because they don't appeal to the same demographics (though there is some overlap).
- dlss 10y ago
  > Trivial: Because the market size increases. More people are renting hotels/airbnb + more often + for longer durations. Lol, yes, this is fair. The hotel market doubling in revenue would be headline news at the WSJ, etc though. We can actually get a rough sense of what's happened to the market as a whole by looking at the stock prices and cashflows of the major hotel chains. Looks like Mariott has lost a bit of value in the last year[1], same for Hilton[2]. La Quinta holdings went way down[3]. Please check the hotel chain of your choice if you feel I cherry picked these examples (Motel 6 and Best Western were my first choices, but are privately held). Which is to say it doesn't appear that the market doubled in size. [1] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793794248&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:MAR&ntsp=0&ei=uhUGWJnfMcKjiQKHv7jACw https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&... [2] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793837363&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:HLT&ntsp=0&ei=5BUGWLHeBaTKigKzxq64Bg https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&... [3] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793920859&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:LQ&ntsp=0&ei=NxYGWLC2PMr7igLQy5O4BA https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&...
  - sanderjd 10y ago
    The parent comment is taking about "the market for people staying places when they travel", and you're giving numbers for "the market for people staying in hotels". Those two things were almost equivalent for a long time, but are now detached, and AirBnB occupies that gap.
forgetsusername 10y ago
>However, stagnant growth on the part of AirBnb seems like it would have been widely reported. By whom? I agree it would be big news (and people love negativity) but it's a private company with powerful insiders and investors, and they control the narrative.

by dlss 10y ago

MaysonL 10y ago

It is interesting, nonetheless, that the past two years have been the best on record for hotels, as far as their occupancy rate is concerned. (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/hotels-occupancy-rate-on-track-to-be_17.html http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/hotels-occupancy-r...)

sametmax 10y ago
Except I'm on one of the biggest touristic area in France, and hotels here a loosing customers. We got less tourists than before, and I can see many people using RBNB. In the mean time, some people close to me are talking about being fired from their hotel because of the economy. While I know my situation is not a representative sample, I do travel a lot and observed the same thing in various places, including other countries. I discussed it with other travelers, and they reported the same. So I wouldn't conclude that everything is ok for hotels. The story needs more data.
- ghaff 10y ago
  US tourist travel to much of Europe was down this summer [1] with the drop attributed to the terrorist attacks. Anecdotally, tourist travel in areas of the Northeast US was up considerably (double digits) this summer. I'm sure there are a number of reasons for this--low gas prices but not especially cheap airfares, the general air travel experience, etc.--but reluctance to visit Europe (in spite of a strong dollar) does seem to be real based on conversations with a number of restaurant owners for example. [1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/terror-attacks-weigh-on-europes-travel-companies-1469372313 http://www.wsj.com/articles/terror-attacks-weigh-on-europes-...
exclusiv 10y ago
Good point. We'll see how it shakes out when they aren't having record years. Hotels typically have about a 5 year cycle. Families can get a more memorable experience and usually a more economical one with a home rental. My property has even been getting small corporate retreats. There's a lot of people that have never tried the hospitality sharing economy. Only 6% have [1]. It's kind of intimidating and unknown the first time but once you do it you realize it's pretty awesome. Also - hotels will be hurting when businesses adopt home share credit card rewards. You'll see a shift from business travelers. Many have Marriott rewards cards as an example like they used to have Blackberries. They'll demand a more flexible option which will be a game changer. Example: https://www.americanexpress.com/us/content/airbnb/ https://www.americanexpress.com/us/content/airbnb/ Hotels are definitely worried - they're just not putting that out there because most of the large brands are public franchises. [1] https://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology/publications/assets/pwc-consumer-intelligence-series-the-sharing-economy.pdf https://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology/publications/assets/pwc...
- ghaff 10y ago
  >You'll see a shift from business travelers We'll see. I'm a frequent business traveler who often prefers smaller and more local when I travel on vacation and, indeed, will often favor "boutique hotels" when I'm on business; I keep an eye on hotel rewards but aren't a slave to them. But, when traveling on business, I really do want a predictable experience, 24 hour desk, etc. I'm not looking for travel experiences from the hotel perspective at all.
  - exclusiv 10y ago
    Yeah predictability is a definite concern. However, many AirBnBs are more convenient in many ways. My place is accessed by touchscreen code and I let visitors check in whenever they want and usually let them check out late at no charge if requested. 50M internet. Killer kitchen, tons of work space, grill, new hot tub. AirBnB is pushing more hosts toward instant book which will make it easier for business travel. They also prioritize hosts that respond quickly because booking has to be easy to convert, especially for last minute bookings and biz travel. It may not be for you, but many on business don't necessarily look for an experience - they just want amenities and features they have at home. Younger people are generally more excited about AirBnB too so that will drive more growth and adoption as they become the traveling warriors. AirBnB and others need not take huge market share from hotels that cater to business travelers to cause them to hurt. Expenses are on the rise for hotels and changes in the minimum wage and labor laws will have a big impact too. The industry pays very little and demands a lot from their employees.

user5994461 10y ago

> How can Airbnb's revenue have almost doubled while still losing market share across the board? Trivial: Because the market size increases. More people are renting hotels/airbnb + more often + for longer durations. For starters, I believe that comparisons shouldn't oppose AirBnb and Hotels because they don't appeal to the same demographics (though there is some overlap).

dlss 10y ago
> Trivial: Because the market size increases. More people are renting hotels/airbnb + more often + for longer durations. Lol, yes, this is fair. The hotel market doubling in revenue would be headline news at the WSJ, etc though. We can actually get a rough sense of what's happened to the market as a whole by looking at the stock prices and cashflows of the major hotel chains. Looks like Mariott has lost a bit of value in the last year[1], same for Hilton[2]. La Quinta holdings went way down[3]. Please check the hotel chain of your choice if you feel I cherry picked these examples (Motel 6 and Best Western were my first choices, but are privately held). Which is to say it doesn't appear that the market doubled in size. [1] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793794248&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:MAR&ntsp=0&ei=uhUGWJnfMcKjiQKHv7jACw https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&... [2] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793837363&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:HLT&ntsp=0&ei=5BUGWLHeBaTKigKzxq64Bg https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&... [3] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476793920859&chddm=98532&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:LQ&ntsp=0&ei=NxYGWLC2PMr7igLQy5O4BA https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&...
- sanderjd 10y ago
  The parent comment is taking about "the market for people staying places when they travel", and you're giving numbers for "the market for people staying in hotels". Those two things were almost equivalent for a long time, but are now detached, and AirBnB occupies that gap.

forgetsusername 10y ago

>However, stagnant growth on the part of AirBnb seems like it would have been widely reported. By whom? I agree it would be big news (and people love negativity) but it's a private company with powerful insiders and investors, and they control the narrative.