3 ms·

So, this will work great in Downtown someplace - but not so well outer whoknowswhereville - I spent a majority of the last three years driving on; roads not on

by Aloha 10y ago

So, this will work great in Downtown someplace - but not so well outer whoknowswhereville - I spent a majority of the last three years driving on; roads not on maps, dirt roads, logging roads, roads with no internet access, and poorly marked roads. We might be able to replace taxicabs thru automation likely in the next 20 - I dont think we will ever replace drivers. I see automation in a car taking the same route as autopilot in the airplane - not total automation, just partial.

laughfactory 10y ago
I agree in part, but think it'll go further than you expect. I suspect manual driving will, in the next twenty years, require lots of additional training, licensing, insurance, and certifications. And you'll have to prove special circumstances (farm use only, etc). As the technology gets there maps will catch up, and likely become more and more real-time. It seems impossible now, but I'll bet the next wave of mapping will marry a thick web of satellites and machine learning to essentially figure out what is a road, a dirt road, a road with construction, etc. And that will be fed to the cars in their respective areas. The present situation will seem quaint indeed. So even in rural areas, there will likely be auto cars everywhere by in the most remote of areas (similar to how in some places the snowmobile and ATV are more heavily utilized than cars simply because of environmental/geographical reasons). I also inside this sea change will heavily impact rural areas and many of them will either be transformed or erased. Think about what happened when the interstates were built. Many towns which had previously prospered on state highways and the like almost literally overnight just vanished...Or turned into just a gas station, diner, and bar for what few travelers remained.

3 ms·

So, this will work great in Downtown someplace - but not so well outer whoknowswhereville - I spent a majority of the last three years driving on; roads not on

by Aloha 10y ago

laughfactory 10y ago
I agree in part, but think it'll go further than you expect. I suspect manual driving will, in the next twenty years, require lots of additional training, licensing, insurance, and certifications. And you'll have to prove special circumstances (farm use only, etc). As the technology gets there maps will catch up, and likely become more and more real-time. It seems impossible now, but I'll bet the next wave of mapping will marry a thick web of satellites and machine learning to essentially figure out what is a road, a dirt road, a road with construction, etc. And that will be fed to the cars in their respective areas. The present situation will seem quaint indeed. So even in rural areas, there will likely be auto cars everywhere by in the most remote of areas (similar to how in some places the snowmobile and ATV are more heavily utilized than cars simply because of environmental/geographical reasons). I also inside this sea change will heavily impact rural areas and many of them will either be transformed or erased. Think about what happened when the interstates were built. Many towns which had previously prospered on state highways and the like almost literally overnight just vanished...Or turned into just a gas station, diner, and bar for what few travelers remained.