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Low margin? Uber collects ~20% from the cost of every trip taken. Given the hypothetical that full autonomy is a solved problem, A premium robotaxi service coul

by Fricken 10y ago

Low margin? Uber collects ~20% from the cost of every trip taken. Given the hypothetical that full autonomy is a solved problem, A premium robotaxi service could readily command Apple-grade profit margins. The barriers to entry are insanely high, of course, and that places Apple amongst a handful of companies with the resources to clear those barriers. Autonomous vehicle pioneers have recently amended their expectations for when autonomous car will be fully realized, claiming it will now be more than 20 years. This is a far cry from conventional expectations in the self driving car world 3 years ago, when it was assumed that one or several big industry players would be mass producing robotaxis by the mid-2020s.

CPLX 10y ago
> Given the hypothetical that full autonomy is a solved problem lol
- greedo 10y ago
  I can't see fully autonomous vehicles in my lifetime. Everyone will chime in to tell me about advances in robotics, ML, sensor technology and fusion, how many miles Google cars have driven, so on and so forth. I have approximately 30 more years before departing this mortal coil. Roads are tough. Sometimes they're covered in snow, ice, rain with poor visibility. Sometimes they're well constructed, other times they're in disrepair. That's just the technical side of the issue. The social side (at least in the US) is much more difficult. In the foreseeable future, any AV will have to share the road with "classic" cars, driven by humans of modest computing power. Trying to anticipate how they will interact should be interesting to say the least. And in our hyper-litigious and hyper-protective society, the clash between AVs and traditional cars will be difficult to resolve.
hodder 10y ago
Margins depend on a competitive advantage. I was speaking about car manufacturing, though I personally doubt there will be sustainability to 20% margins in a car service. Uber may arguably have a first mover and scale network advantage. I personally doubt that will hold.

by Fricken 10y ago

CPLX 10y ago

> Given the hypothetical that full autonomy is a solved problem lol

greedo 10y ago
I can't see fully autonomous vehicles in my lifetime. Everyone will chime in to tell me about advances in robotics, ML, sensor technology and fusion, how many miles Google cars have driven, so on and so forth. I have approximately 30 more years before departing this mortal coil. Roads are tough. Sometimes they're covered in snow, ice, rain with poor visibility. Sometimes they're well constructed, other times they're in disrepair. That's just the technical side of the issue. The social side (at least in the US) is much more difficult. In the foreseeable future, any AV will have to share the road with "classic" cars, driven by humans of modest computing power. Trying to anticipate how they will interact should be interesting to say the least. And in our hyper-litigious and hyper-protective society, the clash between AVs and traditional cars will be difficult to resolve.

hodder 10y ago

Margins depend on a competitive advantage. I was speaking about car manufacturing, though I personally doubt there will be sustainability to 20% margins in a car service. Uber may arguably have a first mover and scale network advantage. I personally doubt that will hold.