4 ms·

Comparing those numbers with Europe, whose safety net doesn't usually require people to pretend being disabled, would have been enlightening. A missed opportuni

by brohee 10y ago

Comparing those numbers with Europe, whose safety net doesn't usually require people to pretend being disabled, would have been enlightening. A missed opportunity.

saiya-jin 10y ago
you are describing small part of europe, that's getting even smaller. just give immigration a bit of time
- denzil_correa 10y ago
  > you are describing small part of europe, that's getting even smaller. How small? > just give immigration a bit of time Do you have a time frame? How will it effect?
  - throwaway1892 10y ago
    > How will it effect? My guess is that the increase number of immigrants in Western Europe will cause a reduction in social benefits
    - denzil_correa 10y ago
      How? Without immigrants, the social benefit system would reduce anyways because there aren't enough young people to pay into the system. In addition, both low and high skilled migrants increase productivity and per capita GDP in advanced economies (Source : IMF) [0]. [0] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/c4.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/c4.pdf
      - throwaway1892 10y ago
        From the linked paper: "The stock of refugees has a stronger presence of children; in 2015, for instance, more than half of refugees were under the age of 18." So a part of the migrants would not influence positively the GDP for a few years and put more pressure on public welfare system, as well as public schools and hospitals. Also I think that, whether low or high skilled, when you have high unemployment rate (above 10%), more workers just mean more people unemployed, so more social benefits, that the various welfare states won't be able to assume, since they all are in deficit. Also can you point in the document where this affirmation is made?
        denzil_correa 10y ago
        Right there in the abstract > a common theme is that, despite the negative short-term impact on recipient economies, they offer potential gains in the long term. In addition, Figure 4.21 (and surrounding text) explicitly mentions the positive longer term growth effects due to migrants. > So a part of the migrants would not influence positively the GDP for a few years and put more pressure on public welfare system, as well as public schools and hospitals. That is assuming the current system is not good enough. > whether low or high skilled, when you have high unemployment rate (above 10%), Generally, migrants move to countries with opportunities.
        throwaway1892 10y ago
        Ok, thank you for the information. > That is assuming the current system is not good enough. Where I am, the current system seems sorely lacking, for example regarding the number of homeless, social mobility, existing public infrastructure, education, healthcare... > Generally, migrants move to countries with opportunities. Apparently 10% of unemployment is enough of an opportunity for migrant going to Western Europe (Spain: 22.7%, France: 10.5%, Italy: 12.4%, Greece: 25.6, Portugal: 13%...). But I think the migrants going in those countries are mostly refugees, which might not stay long term, so not providing the economic benefits you talked about. Edit: So, it is possible that the afflux of refugees in Western Europe will cause a diminution of social benefits since it would strain even more a failing system and not provide any long term economic benefit since they would have gone back home, once the crisis finished (and I hope it will end before long). Edit II: assuming, of course, that the majority of migrants arriving in Europe are refugees, which seems to be supported by the figures provided by the documents ("The European Union also received an unparalleled number of refugees recently—about 1.25 million first-time asylum " p. 14).
        denzil_correa 10y ago
        The original article points to an overall positive effect of migration including refugees. I don't see how this will change. That said, the falling social security system in Europe is not due to refugees but to how the system is built.
  - throwaway1892 10y ago
    Another hypothesis (on how the migrants might cause the disappearance of welfare state in Western Europe): The society that created the welfare state is particular enough that the change contributed by the influx of immigrants might change the society to a point where the welfare state disappear. It's more of a social change than an economical one. In that case, it's on a long time frame (decades at least), where my other hypothesis is more political and economic and is shorter, around a decade.
pjc50 10y ago
Depending on whether or not you count the UK as "Europe", I believe the same thing has happened here for much the same reasons. http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/spr5108.pdf http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files... "What seems to have happened is that the employment threshold has gradually moved down the severity scale, so that men and women with middle-severity impairments who would have been employed in the 1970s are now out of work and receiving incapacity benefits"
- istjohn 10y ago
  This is unfortunate not only for reasons of productivity losses, but also because the sense of belonging and agency that goes with employment can be a great boon to one's mental health and mental disorders are cited as being present in a large proportion of those who have dropped out of the labor force.
s_q_b 10y ago
I would wager most of those people are disabled, but for psychological reasons. As you point out, the level of stress caused by financial insecurity during any period of disability is extremely high. A lot of white collar workers in the US end up in a particular catch-22: their jobs are making them sick, but because they are sick, they can't leave their jobs. They become psychologically disabled because of the pressure to return to work before they are well, the stressor of battling the insurance companies, and the suffering from the cultural shame of not actively working. Finally, after the 12-week FMLA requirement is exceeded, absent any policy, state law, contract, a company can fire an employee for absence after returning from, or even during, disability leave. In conclusion, there is no doubt that there are some true "fakes" scamming the system. Afterall, the largest cause of disability is Generalized Anxiety Disorder, followed by several other "invisible" disabilities that cannot be objectively verified. That makes me very upset, given that I sufferered a massively disruptive neuropathic pain disorder that only recently subsided enough to start coding again. During those few months, I had to hear constant negative feedback from friends and relatives, usually telling me the equivalent of "Tough it out like a man." This false perception was further compounded by the fact that I didn't look disabled. Every photo on Facebook caused a barrage of "I thought you were sick" comments, not realizing that my medical orders were to learn to resocialize despite the pain. Then that snapshot becomes people's vision of your illness, not realizing that the quiet dinner with your friends was the one hour you spent out of bed that day. These skeptical responses are certainly due to the widespread deception by some, as you describe. I am just grateful that I had a "hard" medical diagnosis upon which to rely. But some people really do need the disability insurance, which they have paid to obtain, in order to survive, not lose their homes, and pay for medical care during periods of tremendous suffering. Everyone, please remember that not all illnesses present to the naked eye, or even to physical examination. We do not fully understand how either the human body, or more importantly, the human brain functions. Without that knowledge, it is almost impossible to tell the genuine afflictions from the false claims.
- VLM 10y ago
  "In conclusion, there is no doubt that there are some true "fakes" scamming the system." The system scammed them. "Do what your teachers say and collect pieces of paper from academics and 100% of you will get a guaranteed lifelong meal ticket with great bennies" So now they have to suicide, taking their families with them, because no job means no food no shelter no medical care ... or they can scam the system right back, just like the system scammed them. "For my whole life, did everything I was told no matter how hard or stupid it sounded, to get that lifelong real job meal ticket, they took it away from everyone in my community to save money, guess I'll just collect a lifelong disability meal ticket instead, its a lot of work and BS but the process selected for people good at putting up with BS so I'll surely get mine" In modern America disability is our only long term unemployment system. You get pain pills for phantom pain then sell them for extra cash. The system screws you, you screw it right back. Isn't their fault they were born into a system that tossed them away like human trash. The system is faulty, not them.
mxfh 10y ago
There is some global data available on the so called NEET phenomenon. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.NEET.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.NEET.ZS http://oecdinsights.org/2016/10/13/neets-policies-to-support-young-people/ http://oecdinsights.org/2016/10/13/neets-policies-to-support...

by brohee 10y ago

Comparing those numbers with Europe, whose safety net doesn't usually require people to pretend being disabled, would have been enlightening. A missed opportunity.

saiya-jin 10y ago

you are describing small part of europe, that's getting even smaller. just give immigration a bit of time

denzil_correa 10y ago
> you are describing small part of europe, that's getting even smaller. How small? > just give immigration a bit of time Do you have a time frame? How will it effect?
- throwaway1892 10y ago
  > How will it effect? My guess is that the increase number of immigrants in Western Europe will cause a reduction in social benefits
  - denzil_correa 10y ago
    How? Without immigrants, the social benefit system would reduce anyways because there aren't enough young people to pay into the system. In addition, both low and high skilled migrants increase productivity and per capita GDP in advanced economies (Source : IMF) [0]. [0] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/c4.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/c4.pdf
    - throwaway1892 10y ago
      From the linked paper: "The stock of refugees has a stronger presence of children; in 2015, for instance, more than half of refugees were under the age of 18." So a part of the migrants would not influence positively the GDP for a few years and put more pressure on public welfare system, as well as public schools and hospitals. Also I think that, whether low or high skilled, when you have high unemployment rate (above 10%), more workers just mean more people unemployed, so more social benefits, that the various welfare states won't be able to assume, since they all are in deficit. Also can you point in the document where this affirmation is made?
      - denzil_correa 10y ago
        Right there in the abstract > a common theme is that, despite the negative short-term impact on recipient economies, they offer potential gains in the long term. In addition, Figure 4.21 (and surrounding text) explicitly mentions the positive longer term growth effects due to migrants. > So a part of the migrants would not influence positively the GDP for a few years and put more pressure on public welfare system, as well as public schools and hospitals. That is assuming the current system is not good enough. > whether low or high skilled, when you have high unemployment rate (above 10%), Generally, migrants move to countries with opportunities.
        throwaway1892 10y ago
        Ok, thank you for the information. > That is assuming the current system is not good enough. Where I am, the current system seems sorely lacking, for example regarding the number of homeless, social mobility, existing public infrastructure, education, healthcare... > Generally, migrants move to countries with opportunities. Apparently 10% of unemployment is enough of an opportunity for migrant going to Western Europe (Spain: 22.7%, France: 10.5%, Italy: 12.4%, Greece: 25.6, Portugal: 13%...). But I think the migrants going in those countries are mostly refugees, which might not stay long term, so not providing the economic benefits you talked about. Edit: So, it is possible that the afflux of refugees in Western Europe will cause a diminution of social benefits since it would strain even more a failing system and not provide any long term economic benefit since they would have gone back home, once the crisis finished (and I hope it will end before long). Edit II: assuming, of course, that the majority of migrants arriving in Europe are refugees, which seems to be supported by the figures provided by the documents ("The European Union also received an unparalleled number of refugees recently—about 1.25 million first-time asylum " p. 14).
        denzil_correa 10y ago
        The original article points to an overall positive effect of migration including refugees. I don't see how this will change. That said, the falling social security system in Europe is not due to refugees but to how the system is built.
- throwaway1892 10y ago
  Another hypothesis (on how the migrants might cause the disappearance of welfare state in Western Europe): The society that created the welfare state is particular enough that the change contributed by the influx of immigrants might change the society to a point where the welfare state disappear. It's more of a social change than an economical one. In that case, it's on a long time frame (decades at least), where my other hypothesis is more political and economic and is shorter, around a decade.

pjc50 10y ago

Depending on whether or not you count the UK as "Europe", I believe the same thing has happened here for much the same reasons. http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/spr5108.pdf http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files... "What seems to have happened is that the employment threshold has gradually moved down the severity scale, so that men and women with middle-severity impairments who would have been employed in the 1970s are now out of work and receiving incapacity benefits"

istjohn 10y ago
This is unfortunate not only for reasons of productivity losses, but also because the sense of belonging and agency that goes with employment can be a great boon to one's mental health and mental disorders are cited as being present in a large proportion of those who have dropped out of the labor force.

s_q_b 10y ago

I would wager most of those people are disabled, but for psychological reasons. As you point out, the level of stress caused by financial insecurity during any period of disability is extremely high. A lot of white collar workers in the US end up in a particular catch-22: their jobs are making them sick, but because they are sick, they can't leave their jobs. They become psychologically disabled because of the pressure to return to work before they are well, the stressor of battling the insurance companies, and the suffering from the cultural shame of not actively working. Finally, after the 12-week FMLA requirement is exceeded, absent any policy, state law, contract, a company can fire an employee for absence after returning from, or even during, disability leave. In conclusion, there is no doubt that there are some true "fakes" scamming the system. Afterall, the largest cause of disability is Generalized Anxiety Disorder, followed by several other "invisible" disabilities that cannot be objectively verified. That makes me very upset, given that I sufferered a massively disruptive neuropathic pain disorder that only recently subsided enough to start coding again. During those few months, I had to hear constant negative feedback from friends and relatives, usually telling me the equivalent of "Tough it out like a man." This false perception was further compounded by the fact that I didn't look disabled. Every photo on Facebook caused a barrage of "I thought you were sick" comments, not realizing that my medical orders were to learn to resocialize despite the pain. Then that snapshot becomes people's vision of your illness, not realizing that the quiet dinner with your friends was the one hour you spent out of bed that day. These skeptical responses are certainly due to the widespread deception by some, as you describe. I am just grateful that I had a "hard" medical diagnosis upon which to rely. But some people really do need the disability insurance, which they have paid to obtain, in order to survive, not lose their homes, and pay for medical care during periods of tremendous suffering. Everyone, please remember that not all illnesses present to the naked eye, or even to physical examination. We do not fully understand how either the human body, or more importantly, the human brain functions. Without that knowledge, it is almost impossible to tell the genuine afflictions from the false claims.

VLM 10y ago
"In conclusion, there is no doubt that there are some true "fakes" scamming the system." The system scammed them. "Do what your teachers say and collect pieces of paper from academics and 100% of you will get a guaranteed lifelong meal ticket with great bennies" So now they have to suicide, taking their families with them, because no job means no food no shelter no medical care ... or they can scam the system right back, just like the system scammed them. "For my whole life, did everything I was told no matter how hard or stupid it sounded, to get that lifelong real job meal ticket, they took it away from everyone in my community to save money, guess I'll just collect a lifelong disability meal ticket instead, its a lot of work and BS but the process selected for people good at putting up with BS so I'll surely get mine" In modern America disability is our only long term unemployment system. You get pain pills for phantom pain then sell them for extra cash. The system screws you, you screw it right back. Isn't their fault they were born into a system that tossed them away like human trash. The system is faulty, not them.

mxfh 10y ago

There is some global data available on the so called NEET phenomenon. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.NEET.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.NEET.ZS http://oecdinsights.org/2016/10/13/neets-policies-to-support-young-people/ http://oecdinsights.org/2016/10/13/neets-policies-to-support...