5 ms·

Given current trends with Wikileaks-distributed Russian intel dumps, the upcoming 'surprise' will be another big fat nothing-burger. Most likely case is that A

by evgen 10y ago

Given current trends with Wikileaks-distributed Russian intel dumps, the upcoming 'surprise' will be another big fat nothing-burger. Most likely case is that Assange went a step too far in using the Ecuadorian's hospitality just to become a Russian cut-out and at some point his ongoing attempts to influence the election (and failing miserably at that) reminded the Ecuadorians that they were gaining nothing by hosting him and now were looking at another four years of fallout. TBH I don't think anyone really cared too much about Assange, but his desperate need for attention ended up leading him to play with fire.

gragas 10y ago
[citation needed] Please provide evidence that the leaks are from Russia. Also, many people care a lot about Assange. Millions of people care about Assange and WikiLeaks. It is absolutely absurd (and almost un-humanitarian) to try to downplay the work that he has done.
- lyschoening 10y ago
  U.S. intelligence services and the Obama administration have explicitly accused Russia of the leaks and assessed that this must have been orchestrated from high in the Russian government. That's a pretty bold statement in politics. Of course we can point to cases where U.S. administrations have lied, but it still should count as evidence, at least on a probabilistic level. Also, regarding Assange, I believe evgen meant to say that the administration was happy with where he was holed up until he started stirring up the pot.
  - varjag 10y ago
    Also note that the U.S. government did not implicate any foreign governments in cases of cablegate or NSA leaks, and these were as big as they get. Obama administration does not seem to throw such accusations lightly.
    - gragas 10y ago
      I do agree that the Obama administration doesn't seem to throw such accusations lightly. But Obama and the entire Democratic party didn't necessarily have their ass on the line when the NSA leaks happened.
      - varjag 10y ago
        There's certainly first time for everything. However, I assume when Snowden backed out from his path to martyrdom and landed in Russian asylum, the temptation to label him as a foreign agent must have been great. Being penetrated by a spy is perceived differently than suffering from gross incompetence, and quite a few high ranking asses in NSA and elsewhere could be saved.
        TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
        I don't think any of the smears against Snowden being a Russian agent or whatever were ever said “officially”.
        varjag 10y ago
        Exactly my point.
  - alva 10y ago
    >U.S. intelligence services and the Obama administration have explicitly accused Russia of the leaks No they have not. Read the statement [0] very, very carefully. [0] https://www.dhs.gov/node/23199 https://www.dhs.gov/node/23199
    - lyschoening 10y ago
      > "The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations." > "We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities."
tenpies 10y ago
> Russian intel dumps Has there been any evidence of this yet? I trust the government and main stream media to accurately report the geographic source of technical transactions about as much as I trust Facebook with privacy.
- oxide 10y ago
  Haven't the Russians just recently quietly changed gears? i.e. stopped denying it and changed the rhetoric to "why does it matter who leaked it?" I doubt there is concrete, independently verified evidence, but I'm not sure how much more fishy the Kremlin could possibly be about the whole thing. I usually don't mind giving the benefit of the doubt to people, but I don't tend to feel the same way about governments.
  - imron 10y ago
    > changed the rhetoric to "why does it matter who leaked it?" No. That's been consistent with their response since the DNCLeaks.
    - oxide 10y ago
      Originally it was a flat out denial IIRC. The sudden recent mention of who cares is what raised a red flag for me, it didn't seem consistent with the original statement at all. I could be wrong, but honestly, "who cares who did it" is a fishy enough govenrment response that it's hardly any wonder the Russians are being looked at funny.
      - imron 10y ago
        What is recent? The top results for a Google search for Putin on DNC Leaks is an article from a month and a half ago (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/putin-interview-dnc-hack-227668 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/putin-interview-dnc-ha...) with Putin denying it was the Russians and also saying does it matter who did it. I recall similar news from when the DNC leaks broke and people were blaming Russia then too.
stale2002 10y ago
I am saving this comment for tomorrow. Normally, I agree with some of the stuff you said. Wikileaks tends to talk big talk without actually delivering. This time though seems a bit different. If they have anything, anything at all left, I think they are going to be leaking it tomorrow, with how much they are hyping this up. If tomorrow the leaks are just a bunch of nothing, well that means they probably don't have anything at all of significance. We will surely see.
- phy6 10y ago
  I've heard Nov 1st is a special day.
DominikR 10y ago
If it really was the Russians then it would be pointless to attack Assange in the embassy or cut off Internet access as the leaks would come regardlessly.

by evgen 10y ago

gragas 10y ago

[citation needed] Please provide evidence that the leaks are from Russia. Also, many people care a lot about Assange. Millions of people care about Assange and WikiLeaks. It is absolutely absurd (and almost un-humanitarian) to try to downplay the work that he has done.

lyschoening 10y ago
U.S. intelligence services and the Obama administration have explicitly accused Russia of the leaks and assessed that this must have been orchestrated from high in the Russian government. That's a pretty bold statement in politics. Of course we can point to cases where U.S. administrations have lied, but it still should count as evidence, at least on a probabilistic level. Also, regarding Assange, I believe evgen meant to say that the administration was happy with where he was holed up until he started stirring up the pot.
- varjag 10y ago
  Also note that the U.S. government did not implicate any foreign governments in cases of cablegate or NSA leaks, and these were as big as they get. Obama administration does not seem to throw such accusations lightly.
  - gragas 10y ago
    I do agree that the Obama administration doesn't seem to throw such accusations lightly. But Obama and the entire Democratic party didn't necessarily have their ass on the line when the NSA leaks happened.
    - varjag 10y ago
      There's certainly first time for everything. However, I assume when Snowden backed out from his path to martyrdom and landed in Russian asylum, the temptation to label him as a foreign agent must have been great. Being penetrated by a spy is perceived differently than suffering from gross incompetence, and quite a few high ranking asses in NSA and elsewhere could be saved.
      - TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
        I don't think any of the smears against Snowden being a Russian agent or whatever were ever said “officially”.
        varjag 10y ago
        Exactly my point.
- alva 10y ago
  >U.S. intelligence services and the Obama administration have explicitly accused Russia of the leaks No they have not. Read the statement [0] very, very carefully. [0] https://www.dhs.gov/node/23199 https://www.dhs.gov/node/23199
  - lyschoening 10y ago
    > "The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations." > "We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities."

tenpies 10y ago

> Russian intel dumps Has there been any evidence of this yet? I trust the government and main stream media to accurately report the geographic source of technical transactions about as much as I trust Facebook with privacy.

oxide 10y ago
Haven't the Russians just recently quietly changed gears? i.e. stopped denying it and changed the rhetoric to "why does it matter who leaked it?" I doubt there is concrete, independently verified evidence, but I'm not sure how much more fishy the Kremlin could possibly be about the whole thing. I usually don't mind giving the benefit of the doubt to people, but I don't tend to feel the same way about governments.
- imron 10y ago
  > changed the rhetoric to "why does it matter who leaked it?" No. That's been consistent with their response since the DNCLeaks.
  - oxide 10y ago
    Originally it was a flat out denial IIRC. The sudden recent mention of who cares is what raised a red flag for me, it didn't seem consistent with the original statement at all. I could be wrong, but honestly, "who cares who did it" is a fishy enough govenrment response that it's hardly any wonder the Russians are being looked at funny.
    - imron 10y ago
      What is recent? The top results for a Google search for Putin on DNC Leaks is an article from a month and a half ago (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/putin-interview-dnc-hack-227668 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/putin-interview-dnc-ha...) with Putin denying it was the Russians and also saying does it matter who did it. I recall similar news from when the DNC leaks broke and people were blaming Russia then too.

stale2002 10y ago

I am saving this comment for tomorrow. Normally, I agree with some of the stuff you said. Wikileaks tends to talk big talk without actually delivering. This time though seems a bit different. If they have anything, anything at all left, I think they are going to be leaking it tomorrow, with how much they are hyping this up. If tomorrow the leaks are just a bunch of nothing, well that means they probably don't have anything at all of significance. We will surely see.

phy6 10y ago
I've heard Nov 1st is a special day.

DominikR 10y ago

If it really was the Russians then it would be pointless to attack Assange in the embassy or cut off Internet access as the leaks would come regardlessly.