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That's true only if stock market data is completely random and that there's no signal to predict on. That doesn't seem to be the case, considering hedge funds s
by dreamdu5t 10y ago
That's true only if stock market data is completely random and that there's no signal to predict on. That doesn't seem to be the case, considering hedge funds successfully use ML on historical data to capture alpha. You don't need a model to work forever to be successful.
- asdfologist 10y agoIt looks like you missed the point of my comment. I'm saying that Numerai won't be able to distinguish between zero alpha and positive alpha models, if all they're doing is running historical simulations on black boxes.