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Leaving out the marketing hyperbole, it means that Numerai's core software is an automated trading system derived from, and ostensibly trained on, the most accu
by dsacco 10y ago
Leaving out the marketing hyperbole, it means that Numerai's core software is an automated trading system derived from, and ostensibly trained on, the most accurate pricing models and insights put forward by participants (the data scientists).
Participants with the most accurate [1] insights are paid a sum in exchange for the insights being incorporated into the hedge fund's trading system, which in turn manages the fund's capital.
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1. "Accurate" is a tricky word and I can't comment here on how much effort Numerai puts into ensuring that insights are accurate over meaningful time scales instead of being the result of e.g. overfitting. The insights could presumably be accurate on ranges of anywhere between "once" and "months."
- ikeboy 10y agoThe "predictions" are submitted only knowing a portion of the dataset, but the winners are chosen based on the entire dataset, which is supposed to prevent overfitting.
- mikbob 10y agoWinners are chosen based on a part of the test dataset which the user never gets feedback on/never is able to see the true values of during the competition round - so it's very difficult to overfit to that private set.