4 ms·
You've just selected the national poll that is the most favorable to Trump. An average over polls >> any individual poll. Note that I am not saying that poll sh
by argonaut 10y ago
You've just selected the national poll that is the most favorable to Trump. An average over polls >> any individual poll. Note that I am not saying that poll should be thrown out. But picking one poll in isolation is almost useless.
- blhack 10y agoLooking at this specific poll in isolation is fine as long as you understand that you are looking at it in isolation. I say so because of its polling methodology, which is unique. If you're a politics/polling nerd, this poll is interesting. If you're not, then yes, you are probably better off either just reading 538, or looking at the RCP polling average. https://news.usc.edu/109339/why-the-usc-dornsifel-a-times-presidential-poll-is-unlike-other-polls/ https://news.usc.edu/109339/why-the-usc-dornsifel-a-times-pr...
- threeseed 10y agoMost politics/polling nerds look at aggregations of polls. Not sure where you get this idea that they are interested in a poll like USC which is such an outlier.
- blhack 10y agoThe fact that it's an outlier doesn't interest you? Maybe we have different definitions of "nerd".
- thesimpsons1022 10y agojust stop man. you're sounding desperate. no one is buying it
- snovv_crash 10y agoThe fact that it's an outlier means, statistically, that it is more likely to be wrong.
- sagarm 10y agoYes, it's more likely to be wrong. But this poll performed well in 2012[1] with the same methodology. As a polling nerd, wouldn't you be interested in why it is producing unusual results this year and what implications that might have for polling in general? [1] http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-poll-faq-20161006-snap-story.html http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-poll-faq-20161006-...