5 ms·

I think it's very difficult to find truly unbiased statistics on this. Every current well-known analyst has been repeatedly egregiously wrong on the matter thro

I think it's very difficult to find truly unbiased statistics on this. Every current well-known analyst has been repeatedly egregiously wrong on the matter throughout this election cycle.

rconti 10y ago
On matters of opinion, ABSOLUTELY. On matters of polling, absolutely false. Even Brexit was predicted by the polls, it just didn't happen until a week before the vote. (It's worth noting, of course, the same could happen here. And that's probably what Thiel is counting on).
- threeseed 10y ago
  Exactly there is a big myth going around that polls never predicted Brexit when in fact they absolutely did. People just didn't want to believe them. Polls are objective not subjective.
  - kybernetikos 10y ago
    Can you provide some links about the Brexit polls? I was following the betting markets and the prediction markets and they were dramatically wrong, even the day of the vote.
    - rconti 10y ago
      http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-over-brexit-dont-blame-the-polls.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-ov... http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769
  - notatoad 10y ago
    >Polls are objective not subjective. I get what you're trying to say, and most polling seems to be pretty objective, but you can absolutely do subjective polling. You just have to target the right demo and you can make any poll say anything you want.
- marincounty 10y ago
  This is different. Just say you were going to vote for Trump. Someone stops you on the street, or call you up; would you admit it? I wouldn't. The guy is an absolute joke of a person on so many levels. He's stupid. He's just aweful. But there's a tiny bit of Trump in a lot of us buried deep in that ID. Personally, I do think we need to get much more vigilant on immigration, even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president. Would I admit this in public--hell no. And I have never believed in Globilization. Would I admit this at work--hell no. I really think a lot of people will vote for Trump in the privacy of that booth. I won't because I won't vote for a president this year, or will I?
  - enraged_camel 10y ago
    >>even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president Where can I find the source for this? I may need it when arguing with people...
    - rconti 10y ago
      Well, we know that net migration flows to Mexico (and possibly all of central america?) are positive. They turned from inflows to outflows during the recession. Perhaps this is where someone came up with "Obama sending illegals home". Of course, I'm more than open to being wrong; certain classes of illegal immigrants have been given defacto amnesty, and Obama's spoken in their favor, but no doubt others continue to be persecuted.
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - m52go 10y ago
      "The Deportation Machine Obama Built for President Trump" https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-obama-built-for-president-trump/ https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-ob...
- internaut 10y ago
  With Brexit the reporting of what was going on was dodgy, even the leader of UKIP thought he'd failed. The bookies had Remain at something like .90 probability. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/bookies-place-about-90-chance-on-brexit-rejection-odds-show http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/bookies-pl...
- 1337biz 10y ago
  Where do you see the Brexit predicted by the polls? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United... Seems to not support that claim.

I think it's very difficult to find truly unbiased statistics on this. Every current well-known analyst has been repeatedly egregiously wrong on the matter throughout this election cycle.

rconti 10y ago

On matters of opinion, ABSOLUTELY. On matters of polling, absolutely false. Even Brexit was predicted by the polls, it just didn't happen until a week before the vote. (It's worth noting, of course, the same could happen here. And that's probably what Thiel is counting on).

threeseed 10y ago
Exactly there is a big myth going around that polls never predicted Brexit when in fact they absolutely did. People just didn't want to believe them. Polls are objective not subjective.
- kybernetikos 10y ago
  Can you provide some links about the Brexit polls? I was following the betting markets and the prediction markets and they were dramatically wrong, even the day of the vote.
  - rconti 10y ago
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-over-brexit-dont-blame-the-polls.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-ov... http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769
- notatoad 10y ago
  >Polls are objective not subjective. I get what you're trying to say, and most polling seems to be pretty objective, but you can absolutely do subjective polling. You just have to target the right demo and you can make any poll say anything you want.
marincounty 10y ago
This is different. Just say you were going to vote for Trump. Someone stops you on the street, or call you up; would you admit it? I wouldn't. The guy is an absolute joke of a person on so many levels. He's stupid. He's just aweful. But there's a tiny bit of Trump in a lot of us buried deep in that ID. Personally, I do think we need to get much more vigilant on immigration, even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president. Would I admit this in public--hell no. And I have never believed in Globilization. Would I admit this at work--hell no. I really think a lot of people will vote for Trump in the privacy of that booth. I won't because I won't vote for a president this year, or will I?
- enraged_camel 10y ago
  >>even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president Where can I find the source for this? I may need it when arguing with people...
  - rconti 10y ago
    Well, we know that net migration flows to Mexico (and possibly all of central america?) are positive. They turned from inflows to outflows during the recession. Perhaps this is where someone came up with "Obama sending illegals home". Of course, I'm more than open to being wrong; certain classes of illegal immigrants have been given defacto amnesty, and Obama's spoken in their favor, but no doubt others continue to be persecuted.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - m52go 10y ago
    "The Deportation Machine Obama Built for President Trump" https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-obama-built-for-president-trump/ https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-ob...
internaut 10y ago
With Brexit the reporting of what was going on was dodgy, even the leader of UKIP thought he'd failed. The bookies had Remain at something like .90 probability. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/bookies-place-about-90-chance-on-brexit-rejection-odds-show http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/bookies-pl...
1337biz 10y ago
Where do you see the Brexit predicted by the polls? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United... Seems to not support that claim.