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I'm no expert here. But my understanding is that while we're using them to predict behavior, what's ACTUALLY happening is that numbers are describing what's hap

by elicash 10y ago

I'm no expert here. But my understanding is that while we're using them to predict behavior, what's ACTUALLY happening is that numbers are describing what's happened in previous elections when there were certain economic or polling numbers. So maybe the issue is just in the language we use to talk about it, that we shouldn't even refer to it as forecasting at all.

inimino 10y ago
It's because certain things stay the same between elections that the forecast, while based on the past, has some validity. And it is because every historical situation is different that we can have lively speculation about whether the election is historically unprecedented in some way that invalidates the forecast.