4 ms·

Let's say if some forecaster says a candidate has a 60% of winning in each state, and in fact he wins all of them. Does that means that the forecaster was 40% w

Let's say if some forecaster says a candidate has a 60% of winning in each state, and in fact he wins all of them. Does that means that the forecaster was 40% wrong?

zeeboo 10y ago
In some sense, yes. A proper scoring rule would give that forecaster less points than one that forecasts a 90% chance of winning when they win all of them.