> Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. Eh, not really. Primarily elect

> Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. Eh, not really. Primarily elections (at all levels) are hard to predict for a number of reasons, but the presidential general election is about as straightforward as it gets. Different forecasts vary with respect to the exact estimate and the degrees of confidence, but all the scientific, polls based approaches tend to predict the same range of outcomes. I wouldn't really call that "contradictory" for two models to give the same basic prediction but with slight differences in the errors and exact estimate.